Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
PDD options intelligence
PDD Holdings Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
30
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 13:18 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
PDD currently carries mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
3.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.10
Balanced tape
Trend fit
67
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+7.1%
RS -25.3
Expected move
3.6%
Put-call volume
1.10
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.30
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
88.56
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
936
Research Brief
PDD has a mixed chain read with 30/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 85.40–91.72; The largest call open-interest concentration is 87.00; the largest put concentration is 86.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00.
Priced range85.40–91.72
Call concentration87.00
Put concentration86.00
Max pain reference85.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 85.40 to 91.72. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
85.4088.56 ± 3.1691.72
Confirmation level
A close beyond 91.72 or below 85.40 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 30/100
Pressure is 1/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure1 × 42%
+0.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement67 × 26%
+17.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility35 × 10%
+3.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 87.00; the largest put concentration is 86.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
143
78.00-11.9%
133
245
80.00-9.7%
263
67
81.00-8.5%
2
328
82.00-7.4%
201
1153
83.00-6.3%
172
1282
84.00-5.1%
389
944
85.00-4.0%
3730
1882
86.00-2.9%
1269
192
87.00-1.8%
3958
153
88.00-0.6%
911
20
89.000.5%
1007
50
90.001.6%
1383
0
91.002.8%
924
10
92.003.9%
209
7
93.005.0%
142
3
95.007.3%
836
0
100.0012.9%
318
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.30
7 Aug
7d
0.31
14 Aug
14d
0.35
21 Aug
21d
0.38
28 Aug
28d
0.43
4 Sep
35d
0.42
11 Sep
42d
0.42
18 Sep
49d
0.39
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
71
73
74
76
77
79
80
82
83
84
86
87
89
90
92
93
95
96
98
99
105
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 936 / 936
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13.5M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-1
1W price+7.1%
Call premium23%
Put premium77%
Notional split
C 23% / P 77%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
67/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
24 Aug
Matched earnings event is 21 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1835 contracts traded, $7.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 57% of visible notional.
$7.7M
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 4124 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1241 contracts traded, $604331 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$604331
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 216 contracts traded, $432878 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$432878
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 87 contracts traded, $353958 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$353958
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close88.56
1W+7.1%
RS-25.3
Fair value-22.8%
Options pressure-1
Speculation41
Volatility35
Trend fit67
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 4.0%
30 Jul 10:45
Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 7.3%
31 Jul 13:33
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 5.5%
31 Jul 15:49
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 16:44
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 6.3%
31 Jul 17:54
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 6.3%
31 Jul 18:33
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 6.2%
31 Jul 19:02
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 6.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 82
Strike66.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike67.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike68.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike69.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike71.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike72.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 19
Puts · V 0 · OI 29
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.38
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.60
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.56
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.38
Put-call9.10
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.43
Put-call1.89
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.33
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.32
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.34
Skew-
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.38
Skew-0.03
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.43
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPDD260828P00087000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike87.00
Volume3098
OI9
IV0.37
ContractPDD261016P00070000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume1396
OI2927
IV0.42
ContractPDD260807C00095000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume1292
OI836
IV0.33
ContractPDD260904P00088000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike88.00
Volume1004
OI1022
IV0.41
ContractPDD260807C00090000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume933
OI1383
IV0.32
ContractPDD260918P00135000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike135.00
Volume920
OI307
IV0.71
ContractPDD260814C00093000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike93.00
Volume711
OI100
IV0.28
ContractPDD260918P00130000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume656
OI244
IV0.65
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.