Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
HCI options intelligence
HCI Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 03:18 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
HCI currently carries volatility options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.15.
Expected move
10.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.15
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.44
Call-side skew
Trend fit
38
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.1%
RS -5.5
Expected move
10.5%
Put-call volume
0.44
Volume / OI
0.15
Reference IV
0.56
Max pain
150.00
Underlying
175.01
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
129
Research Brief
HCI has a volatility chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 156.61–193.41; The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 145.00. The most active strike by current volume is 190.00.
Priced range156.61–193.41
Call concentration180.00
Put concentration145.00
Max pain reference150.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 156.61 to 193.41. Max pain at 150.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
156.61175.01 ± 18.40193.41
Confirmation level
A close beyond 193.41 or below 156.61 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 50/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure50 × 42%
+21.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation28 × 22%
+6.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement38 × 26%
+9.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility79 × 10%
+7.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 145.00. The most active strike by current volume is 190.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
110.00-37.1%
4
0
135.00-22.9%
1
0
140.00-20.0%
1
2
145.00-17.1%
0
2
150.00-14.3%
2
1
155.00-11.4%
2
1
160.00-8.6%
0
2
165.00-5.7%
1
0
175.000.0%
1
0
180.002.9%
10
0
185.005.7%
9
0
190.008.6%
8
0
195.0011.4%
3
1
200.0014.3%
2
0
210.0020.0%
1
0
220.0025.7%
3
0
230.0031.4%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.56
21 Aug
21d
0.38
18 Sep
49d
0.40
18 Dec
140d
0.46
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
145
150
155
160
165
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest98%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 129 / 129
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+50
1W price-2.1%
Call premium82%
Put premium18%
Notional split
C 82% / P 18%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.15
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
38/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 186 contracts traded, $844040 estimated gross traded notional, and 65% of visible notional.
$844040
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 124 contracts traded, $133980 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$133980
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 60 contracts traded, $86700 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$86700
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $68525 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$68525
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 8 contracts traded, $49370 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$49370
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close175.01
1W-2.1%
RS-5.5
Fair value+38.3%
Options pressure50
Speculation28
Volatility79
Trend fit38
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:01
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 10:50
Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 9.2%
30 Jul 23:27
Volatility
Pressure 50
Move 13.2%
31 Jul 09:27
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 17:24
Volatility
Pressure 50
Move 11.2%
2 Aug 01:48
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 8.6%
2 Aug 02:18
Volatility
Pressure 50
Move 10.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike110.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike165.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.36
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts59
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.31
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.63
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts6
Avg IV0.46
Put-call2.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.06
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.95
Skew0.50
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.39
Skew0.00
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.47
Skew0.09
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractHCI260821P00230000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.89
ContractHCI260821P00220000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.78
ContractHCI260821P00240000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike240.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.59
ContractHCI260821C00180000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.59
ContractHCI260821C00155000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.59
ContractHCI260918C00145000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike145.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.59
ContractHCI260821C00150000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.62
ContractHCI261218C00125000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike125.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.56
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.