Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CIFR options intelligence
Cipher Mining Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:12 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CIFR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.10.
Expected move
6.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.10
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.60
Call-side skew
Trend fit
73
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-3.6%
RS 23.8
Expected move
6.6%
Put-call volume
0.60
Volume / OI
0.10
Reference IV
1.58
Max pain
23.00
Underlying
23.15
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1410
Research Brief
CIFR has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 21.63–24.67; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 23.00. The most active strike by current volume is 23.00.
Priced range21.63–24.67
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration23.00
Max pain reference23.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 21.63 to 24.67. Max pain at 23.00 sits inside that range, 0.6% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
21.6323.15 ± 1.5224.67
Confirmation level
A close beyond 24.67 or below 21.63 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 32/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure32 × 42%
+13.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement73 × 26%
+18.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility82 × 10%
+8.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 23.00. The most active strike by current volume is 23.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6547
17.00-26.6%
503
8313
17.50-24.4%
248
1418
18.00-22.2%
467
3367
20.00-13.6%
2353
352
20.50-11.4%
3942
3370
21.00-9.3%
842
1569
21.50-7.1%
1745
1116
22.00-5.0%
3815
546
22.50-2.8%
2890
11775
23.00-0.6%
1202
628
23.501.5%
1290
11442
24.003.7%
2633
92
25.008.0%
1906
226
26.0012.3%
3029
4
28.0021.0%
2691
1
28.5023.1%
2549
5
30.0029.6%
38060
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.58
31 Jul
1d
1.62
7 Aug
8d
1.42
14 Aug
15d
1.32
21 Aug
22d
1.26
28 Aug
29d
1.23
4 Sep
36d
1.22
11 Sep
43d
1.18
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1410 / 1410
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $26.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+32
1W price-3.6%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split
C 74% / P 26%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.10
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
73/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 9087 contracts traded, $4.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$4.3M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 9506 contracts traded, $2.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2.6M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 33313 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 2532 contracts traded, $2.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.4M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 10902 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close22.32
1W-3.6%
RS23.8
Fair value+168.4%
Options pressure32
Speculation42
Volatility82
Trend fit73
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:28
Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 15.3%
30 Jul 10:23
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 23.0%
31 Jul 10:12
Volatility
Pressure 32
Move 6.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 43 · OI 95
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 54 · OI 107
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 16 · OI 65
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 45 · OI 73
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 75 · OI 59
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 41 · OI 26
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike7.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 21
Puts · V 1 · OI 100
Strike8.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 63
Puts · V 1 · OI 101
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV1.58
Put-call1.57
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV1.62
Put-call0.16
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV1.42
Put-call1.59
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV1.32
Put-call0.37
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV1.26
Put-call0.54
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.51
Put IV1.65
Skew0.15
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.53
Put IV1.60
Skew0.07
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.28
Put IV1.35
Skew0.07
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.24
Put IV1.32
Skew0.08
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.75
Put IV1.25
Skew-0.50
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCIFR260731P00023000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike23.00
Volume11143
OI11775
IV1.63
ContractCIFR260731P00024000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike24.00
Volume10624
OI11442
IV2.02
ContractCIFR260807C00025000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume10540
OI760
IV1.52
ContractCIFR260807C00027000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike27.00
Volume10443
OI1175
IV1.53
ContractCIFR260814P00018000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume5034
OI87
IV1.39
ContractCIFR260731C00023000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike23.00
Volume3842
OI1202
IV1.51
ContractCIFR260821C00019000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume3438
OI7074
IV1.62
ContractCIFR260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume2982
OI12798
IV1.28
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.