Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
UNP options intelligence
Union Pacific Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 23:50 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
UNP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
2.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.42
Call-side skew
Trend fit
49
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-4.9%
RS 10.2
Expected move
2.7%
Put-call volume
0.42
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.24
Max pain
295.00
Underlying
292.13
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1668
Research Brief
UNP has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 284.33–299.93; The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 290.00. The most active strike by current volume is 287.50.
Priced range284.33–299.93
Call concentration310.00
Put concentration290.00
Max pain reference295.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 284.33 to 299.93. Max pain at 295.00 sits inside that range, 1.0% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
284.33292.13 ± 7.80299.93
Confirmation level
A close beyond 299.93 or below 284.33 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 46/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure46 × 42%
+19.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement49 × 26%
+12.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility28 × 10%
+2.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 290.00. The most active strike by current volume is 287.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
29
270.00-7.6%
1
32
275.00-5.9%
2
126
280.00-4.2%
10
36
285.00-2.4%
21
21
287.50-1.6%
10
137
290.00-0.7%
17
16
292.500.1%
68
59
295.001.0%
162
16
297.501.8%
68
27
300.002.7%
69
10
305.004.4%
584
79
307.505.3%
13
13
310.006.1%
722
0
312.507.0%
195
3
315.007.8%
85
1
320.009.5%
235
1
330.0013.0%
70
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.24
7 Aug
7d
0.24
14 Aug
14d
0.23
21 Aug
21d
0.23
28 Aug
28d
0.25
4 Sep
35d
0.24
11 Sep
42d
0.23
18 Sep
49d
0.24
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
235
245
255
260
265
270
278
283
288
293
298
303
308
313
318
325
330
335
340
345
350
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1668 / 1668
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+46
1W price-4.9%
Call premium70%
Put premium30%
Notional split
C 70% / P 30%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
49/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 986 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1508 contracts traded, $561780 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$561780
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 405 contracts traded, $465525 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$465525
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 299 contracts traded, $159570 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$159570
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 41 contracts traded, $145175 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$145175
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close292.13
1W-4.9%
RS10.2
Fair value+26.9%
Options pressure46
Speculation41
Volatility28
Trend fit49
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 86
Move 4.9%
30 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 5.5%
31 Jul 04:36
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 6.6%
31 Jul 13:42
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 15:39
Volatility
Pressure 43
Move 5.9%
1 Aug 22:50
Bullish
Pressure 46
Move 2.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.75
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.17
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts128
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.71
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.35
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.26
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.25
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.22
Skew-0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.25
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.26
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUNP260918C00290000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume917
OI4256
IV0.22
ContractUNP260918C00345000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike345.00
Volume900
OI979
IV0.32
ContractUNP261016C00300000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike300.00
Volume272
OI311
IV0.22
ContractUNP260821C00295000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike295.00
Volume267
OI1753
IV0.23
ContractUNP270115P00280000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike280.00
Volume250
OI124
IV0.26
ContractUNP261016C00310000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike310.00
Volume240
OI47
IV0.22
ContractUNP260918P00280000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike280.00
Volume216
OI188
IV0.25
ContractUNP260918P00250000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike250.00
Volume164
OI1427
IV0.30
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.