Ticker Options Intelligence

AGCO options intelligence

AGCO Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 41 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 03:55 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

AGCO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 15.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.32

Call-side skew

Trend fit 4

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -15.7%

RS -17.1

Expected move 15.0%
Put-call volume 0.32
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.20
Max pain 120.00
Underlying 121.21
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 206

Research Brief

AGCO has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 103.07–139.35; The largest call open-interest concentration is 140.00; the largest put concentration is 115.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00.

Priced range103.07–139.35
Call concentration140.00
Put concentration115.00
Max pain reference120.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 103.07 to 139.35. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 1.0% below spot.

Spot Max pain
103.07121.21 ± 18.14139.35
Confirmation level

A close beyond 139.35 or below 103.07 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 41/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 62/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure62 × 42%
+26.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement4 × 26%
+1.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility54 × 10%
+5.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score41.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 140.00; the largest put concentration is 115.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
7
55.00-54.6%
0
68
80.00-34.0%
0
10
85.00-29.9%
0
35
90.00-25.7%
2
18
95.00-21.6%
0
43
100.00-17.5%
13
85
105.00-13.4%
6
43
110.00-9.2%
0
158
115.00-5.1%
31
34
120.00-1.0%
45
3
125.003.1%
158
30
130.007.3%
185
2
135.0011.4%
66
1
140.0015.5%
223
0
145.0019.6%
15
0
155.0027.9%
150
0
165.0036.1%
7
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.51× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.20 21 Aug 21d
0.36 18 Sep 49d
0.40 20 Nov 112d
0.39 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
206 / 206
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

65/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $133312 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+62
1W price-15.7%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split C 75% / P 25% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 4/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 67 contracts traded, $77430 estimated gross traded notional, and 58% of visible notional.
$77430
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 44 contracts traded, $30935 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$30935
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 85 contracts traded, $16438 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$16438
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $3270 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3270
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $2890 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2890

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close102.16
1W-15.7%
RS-17.1
Fair value-3.8%
Options pressure62
Speculation41
Volatility54
Trend fit4

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 15.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.20 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.32 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:31 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 9.5%
30 Jul 10:25 Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 9.4%
31 Jul 10:21 Bearish
Pressure -44
Move 11.7%
31 Jul 22:33 Volatility
Pressure -25
Move 15.0%
1 Aug 02:55 Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 15.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 68
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 35

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.20
Put-call0.62
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.40
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.04
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.39
Put-call19.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.44
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.16
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.40
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.41
Skew0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAGCO261120C00130000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike130.00
Volume81
OI87
IV0.41
ContractAGCO261120C00100000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike100.00
Volume64
OI1
IV0.42
ContractAGCO270219P00085000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike85.00
Volume14
OI-
IV0.41
ContractAGCO270219P00105000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike105.00
Volume14
OI-
IV0.39
ContractAGCO260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume8
OI10
IV0.39
ContractAGCO260821C00125000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike125.00
Volume7
OI158
IV0.43
ContractAGCO260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume6
OI13
IV0.43
ContractAGCO260821P00095000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume5
OI18
IV0.44