Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
AUR options intelligence
Aurora Innovation Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 19:54 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
AUR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
8.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.36
Call-side skew
Trend fit
40
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+8.4%
RS 12.7
Expected move
8.1%
Put-call volume
0.36
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.71
Max pain
6.50
Underlying
6.45
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
556
Research Brief
AUR has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.93–6.97; The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.50; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.50.
Priced range5.93–6.97
Call concentration6.50
Put concentration4.00
Max pain reference6.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 5.93 to 6.97. Max pain at 6.50 sits inside that range, 0.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
5.936.45 ± 0.526.97
Confirmation level
A close beyond 6.97 or below 5.93 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 56/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure56 × 42%
+23.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation32 × 22%
+7.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement40 × 26%
+10.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility82 × 10%
+8.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.50; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
1.50-76.7%
21
9
2.00-69.0%
40
24
2.50-61.2%
10
17
3.00-53.5%
1
20
3.50-45.7%
2
1503
4.00-38.0%
2
8
4.50-30.2%
5
188
5.00-22.5%
0
162
5.50-14.7%
12
961
6.00-7.0%
66
156
6.500.8%
517
250
7.008.5%
323
4
7.5016.3%
238
2
8.0024.0%
36
0
8.5031.8%
6
0
9.0039.5%
30
3
10.0055.0%
36
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.71
7 Aug
7d
0.74
14 Aug
14d
0.72
21 Aug
21d
0.75
28 Aug
28d
0.72
4 Sep
35d
0.71
11 Sep
42d
0.72
18 Sep
49d
0.74
20 Nov
112d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
6
6
7
7
8
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 556 / 556
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $416454 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+56
1W price+8.4%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
40/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1732 contracts traded, $150198 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$150198
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 374 contracts traded, $94345 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$94345
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 451 contracts traded, $43138 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$43138
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 207 contracts traded, $16918 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$16918
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 859 contracts traded, $16640 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$16640
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close6.45
1W+8.4%
RS12.7
Fair value+34.8%
Options pressure56
Speculation32
Volatility82
Trend fit40
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:23
Volatility
Pressure 40
Move 12.2%
30 Jul 10:20
Volatility
Pressure -26
Move 13.0%
31 Jul 10:10
Volatility
Pressure 46
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 18:08
Volatility
Pressure -22
Move 8.7%
31 Jul 19:59
Volatility
Pressure -11
Move 7.5%
1 Aug 18:54
Volatility
Pressure 56
Move 8.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 40
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 24
Strike3.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike3.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1503
Strike4.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 188
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.71
Put-call1.53
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.07
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.72
Put-call0.26
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.02
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.72
Put-call0.07
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.78
Skew0.05
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.73
Skew0.05
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.75
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.79
Skew0.13
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.80
Skew0.13
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAUR260807P00005500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike5.50
Volume623
OI162
IV0.68
ContractAUR260821C00007000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.00
Volume620
OI2411
IV0.70
ContractAUR260918C00006000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike6.00
Volume429
OI1554
IV0.74
ContractAUR270115C00007000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.00
Volume384
OI32204
IV0.72
ContractAUR260821C00006500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume373
OI457
IV0.68
ContractAUR260807C00006500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume346
OI517
IV0.71
ContractAUR270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume265
OI57656
IV0.73
ContractAUR260918C00007000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.00
Volume262
OI2737
IV0.64
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.