Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
RLAY options intelligence
Relay Therapeutics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
56
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 13:39 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
RLAY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.25.
Expected move
16.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.25
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.57
Call-side skew
Trend fit
98
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.1%
RS 76.2
Expected move
16.5%
Put-call volume
0.57
Volume / OI
0.25
Reference IV
0.69
Max pain
20.00
Underlying
18.83
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
186
Research Brief
RLAY has a volatility chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.72–21.94; The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 22.00.
Priced range15.72–21.94
Call concentration20.00
Put concentration17.00
Max pain reference20.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 15.72 to 21.94. Max pain at 20.00 sits inside that range, 6.2% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
15.7218.83 ± 3.1121.94
Confirmation level
A close beyond 21.94 or below 15.72 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 56/100
Pressure is 27/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation46 × 22%
+10.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility88 × 10%
+8.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 22.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
7.00-62.8%
24
0
8.00-57.5%
0
0
9.00-52.2%
0
0
11.00-41.6%
4
1
13.00-31.0%
0
11
15.00-20.3%
9
46
16.00-15.0%
2
1332
17.00-9.7%
1
347
18.00-4.4%
70
30
19.000.9%
10
1
20.006.2%
2074
0
21.0011.5%
7
0
22.0016.8%
46
0
23.0022.1%
117
0
24.0027.5%
2
155
25.0032.8%
20
0
28.0048.7%
56
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.69
21 Aug
21d
0.69
18 Sep
49d
0.86
18 Dec
140d
0.86
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 186 / 186
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+27
1W price+2.1%
Call premium73%
Put premium27%
Notional split
C 73% / P 27%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.25
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
98/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1303 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2318 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1123 contracts traded, $584000 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$584000
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 496 contracts traded, $195840 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$195840
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 292 contracts traded, $139940 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$139940
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close18.83
1W+2.1%
RS76.2
Fair value+144.8%
Options pressure27
Speculation46
Volatility88
Trend fit98
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:53
Volatility
Pressure 33
Move 24.0%
30 Jul 10:43
Volatility
Pressure 26
Move 23.4%
30 Jul 19:17
Volatility
Pressure 36
Move 17.6%
31 Jul 12:25
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 14.2%
31 Jul 13:51
Volatility
Pressure 39
Move 20.6%
31 Jul 15:07
Volatility
Pressure 16
Move 20.6%
1 Aug 12:39
Volatility
Pressure 27
Move 16.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 24
Puts · V 20 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.84
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.51
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.78
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.49
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.34
Put IV2.56
Skew1.22
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.79
Skew0.64
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.04
Put IV0.81
Skew-0.23
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.89
Put IV0.82
Skew-0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRLAY260918C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume744
OI359
IV0.90
ContractRLAY260918P00022000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.00
Volume606
OI23
IV0.87
ContractRLAY260918C00014000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike14.00
Volume434
OI184
IV1.01
ContractRLAY261218P00019000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike19.00
Volume414
OI584
IV0.82
ContractRLAY261218C00008000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike8.00
Volume401
OI236
IV1.42
ContractRLAY260918C00009000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike9.00
Volume392
OI668
IV1.61
ContractRLAY260918C00016000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike16.00
Volume392
OI384
IV0.91
ContractRLAY270319C00011000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike11.00
Volume298
OI220
IV1.00
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.