Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
SMG options intelligence
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 00:50 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
SMG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.
Expected move
9.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.11
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.14
Balanced tape
Trend fit
95
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-2.4%
RS 6.4
Expected move
9.1%
Put-call volume
1.14
Volume / OI
0.11
Reference IV
0.48
Max pain
70.00
Underlying
69.31
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
205
Research Brief
SMG has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 63.01–75.61; The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.
Priced range63.01–75.61
Call concentration70.00
Put concentration70.00
Max pain reference70.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 63.01 to 75.61. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 1.0% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
63.0169.31 ± 6.3075.61
Confirmation level
A close beyond 75.61 or below 63.01 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 1/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure1 × 42%
+0.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement95 × 26%
+24.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
4
40.00-42.3%
0
16
47.50-31.5%
0
43
50.00-27.9%
0
78
55.00-20.6%
4
32
57.50-17.0%
17
45
60.00-13.4%
12
42
62.50-9.8%
12
36
65.00-6.2%
38
51
67.50-2.6%
44
258
70.001.0%
437
240
72.504.6%
173
24
75.008.2%
209
0
77.5011.8%
52
0
80.0015.4%
250
0
82.5019.0%
4
0
85.0022.6%
56
0
90.0029.9%
55
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.48
21 Aug
21d
0.43
18 Sep
49d
0.43
18 Dec
140d
0.44
15 Jan
168d
0.49
19 Mar
231d
0.49
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
58
60
63
65
68
70
73
75
78
80
83
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 205 / 205
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $495180 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-1
1W price-2.4%
Call premium67%
Put premium33%
Notional split
C 67% / P 33%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.11
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
95/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 112 contracts traded, $209896 estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$209896
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 205 contracts traded, $52371 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$52371
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 21 contracts traded, $41030 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$41030
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 169 contracts traded, $39505 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$39505
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 38 contracts traded, $31450 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$31450
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close69.31
1W-2.4%
RS6.4
Fair value+16.0%
Options pressure-1
Speculation41
Volatility70
Trend fit95
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:51
Volatility
Pressure -10
Move 12.3%
30 Jul 10:42
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 10:30
Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 23:50
Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 9.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike47.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 16
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 205 · OI 43
Strike55.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 3 · OI 78
Strike57.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 17
Puts · V 3 · OI 32
Strike60.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 12
Puts · V 2 · OI 45
Strike62.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 12
Puts · V 42 · OI 42
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts27
Avg IV0.48
Put-call2.08
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts39
Avg IV0.43
Put-call1.38
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts33
Avg IV0.43
Put-call2.37
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts59
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.36
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts11
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.50
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.44
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.44
Skew0.00
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSMG261218P00060000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI26
IV0.45
ContractSMG270319C00080000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.48
ContractSMG270115P00095000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.00
ContractSMG261218P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.47
ContractSMG270319C00085000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.48
ContractSMG261218P00057500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike57.50
Volume-
OI5
IV0.46
ContractSMG260821C00082500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike82.50
Volume-
OI4
IV0.65
ContractSMG260918P00080000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.41
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.