Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
TOL options intelligence
Toll Brothers Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 11:34 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
TOL currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
8.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.68
Call-side skew
Trend fit
73
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-2.7%
RS -5.3
Expected move
8.2%
Put-call volume
0.68
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.43
Max pain
150.00
Underlying
145.89
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
430
Research Brief
TOL has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 133.89–157.89; The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 130.00. The most active strike by current volume is 180.00.
Priced range133.89–157.89
Call concentration165.00
Put concentration130.00
Max pain reference150.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 133.89 to 157.89. Max pain at 150.00 sits inside that range, 2.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
133.89145.89 ± 12.00157.89
Confirmation level
A close beyond 157.89 or below 133.89 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 15/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure15 × 42%
+6.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement73 × 26%
+19.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 130.00. The most active strike by current volume is 180.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
35
110.00-24.6%
0
37
115.00-21.2%
0
49
120.00-17.7%
1
246
130.00-10.9%
4
116
135.00-7.5%
30
197
140.00-4.0%
49
63
145.00-0.6%
26
95
150.002.8%
189
47
155.006.2%
117
28
160.009.7%
240
7
165.0013.1%
562
2
170.0016.5%
441
0
175.0020.0%
299
0
180.0023.4%
163
0
185.0026.8%
48
0
190.0030.2%
21
0
195.0033.7%
36
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.43
21 Aug
21d
0.38
18 Sep
49d
0.37
18 Dec
140d
0.37
15 Jan
168d
0.38
19 Mar
231d
0.38
17 Jun
321d
0.38
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 430 / 430
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $220346 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+15
1W price-2.7%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split
C 54% / P 46%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
73/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
18 Aug
Matched earnings event is 16 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $60560 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$60560
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 12 contracts traded, $43200 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$43200
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $37205 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$37205
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 19 contracts traded, $19070 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$19070
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 49 contracts traded, $10798 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$10798
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close145.89
1W-2.7%
RS-5.3
Fair value+18.9%
Options pressure15
Speculation40
Volatility63
Trend fit73
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:24
Bearish
Pressure -30
Move 8.8%
30 Jul 05:12
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 8.1%
31 Jul 13:31
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 15:38
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 16:56
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 18:26
Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 19:44
Bearish
Pressure -38
Move 8.0%
2 Aug 10:34
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 8.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 30
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 35
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 37
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 49
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 12
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 246
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 30
Puts · V 30 · OI 116
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.45
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.38
Put-call2.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.40
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts70
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.83
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts62
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.44
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.39
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.39
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.38
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.40
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTOL260821C00180000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume135
OI163
IV0.31
ContractTOL260821P00135000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike135.00
Volume30
OI116
IV0.44
ContractTOL270319P00105000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike105.00
Volume25
OI60
IV0.41
ContractTOL260821C00165000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume20
OI562
IV0.43
ContractTOL260821C00190000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike190.00
Volume17
OI21
IV0.39
ContractTOL260821P00145000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike145.00
Volume15
OI63
IV0.41
ContractTOL270115C00125000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike125.00
Volume15
OI61
IV0.41
ContractTOL260821P00140000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume14
OI197
IV0.42
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.