Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
ARW options intelligence
Arrow Electronics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 20:36 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
ARW currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.40.
Expected move
10.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.40
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.25
Call-side skew
Trend fit
42
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.7%
RS 33.0
Expected move
10.6%
Put-call volume
0.25
Volume / OI
0.40
Reference IV
0.54
Max pain
220.00
Underlying
212.27
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
136
Research Brief
ARW has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 189.77–234.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 220.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00.
Priced range189.77–234.77
Call concentration250.00
Put concentration220.00
Max pain reference220.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 189.77 to 234.77. Max pain at 220.00 sits inside that range, 3.6% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
189.77212.27 ± 22.50234.77
Confirmation level
A close beyond 234.77 or below 189.77 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 64/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure64 × 42%
+26.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation25 × 22%
+5.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement42 × 26%
+10.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility78 × 10%
+7.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 220.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
145.00-31.7%
0
2
160.00-24.6%
0
1
165.00-22.3%
0
2
175.00-17.6%
0
2
180.00-15.2%
0
8
185.00-12.8%
0
5
190.00-10.5%
0
3
195.00-8.1%
3
6
200.00-5.8%
9
22
210.00-1.1%
24
142
220.003.6%
8
0
230.008.4%
6
0
240.0013.1%
7
0
250.0017.8%
58
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.54
21 Aug
22d
0.51
18 Sep
50d
0.49
18 Dec
141d
0.50
19 Mar
232d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 136 / 136
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+64
1W price+2.7%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split
C 83% / P 17%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.40
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
42/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 6 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 838 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 59% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 77 contracts traded, $407381 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$407381
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 38 contracts traded, $210995 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$210995
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $98150 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$98150
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 28 contracts traded, $58380 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$58380
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close212.27
1W+2.7%
RS33.0
Fair value+62.7%
Options pressure64
Speculation25
Volatility78
Trend fit42
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:26
Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 10.9%
30 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.0%
30 Jul 15:23
Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 10.7%
30 Jul 19:36
Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 10.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 8
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike195.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.54
Put-call1.18
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.51
Put-call1.36
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.12
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.54
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.50
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractARW270319P00170000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike170.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.46
ContractARW261218P00180000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike180.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.49
ContractARW261218C00310000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike310.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.51
ContractARW270319P00135000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.52
ContractARW261218P00165000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.51
ContractARW260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.25
ContractARW270319C00155000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.53
ContractARW260821P00160000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.77
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.