Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
EL options intelligence
Estee Lauder Companies Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
34
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 19:04 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
EL currently carries mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
4.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.80
Balanced tape
Trend fit
57
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.5%
RS -15.7
Expected move
4.6%
Put-call volume
0.80
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.43
Max pain
80.00
Underlying
83.90
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
846
Research Brief
EL has a mixed chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 80.05–87.75; The largest call open-interest concentration is 84.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 81.00.
Priced range80.05–87.75
Call concentration84.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference80.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 80.05 to 87.75. Max pain at 80.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
80.0583.90 ± 3.8587.75
Confirmation level
A close beyond 87.75 or below 80.05 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 34/100
Pressure is 13/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure13 × 42%
+5.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility49 × 10%
+4.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 84.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 81.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
99
55.00-34.4%
0
31
70.00-16.6%
4
52
77.00-8.2%
14
25
78.00-7.0%
12
6
79.00-5.8%
28
3
80.00-4.6%
52
4
81.00-3.5%
22
12
82.00-2.3%
25
7
83.00-1.1%
24
10
84.000.1%
56
50
85.001.3%
26
0
86.002.5%
13
0
87.003.7%
9
16
88.004.9%
56
0
92.009.7%
25
2
93.0010.8%
1
0
94.0012.0%
53
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.43
7 Aug
7d
0.44
14 Aug
14d
0.63
21 Aug
21d
0.58
28 Aug
28d
0.55
4 Sep
35d
0.53
11 Sep
42d
0.51
18 Sep
49d
0.48
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
69
70
72
73
75
76
78
79
81
82
83
85
86
88
89
91
92
94
95
97
100
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 846 / 846
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $934058 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+13
1W price+4.5%
Call premium41%
Put premium59%
Notional split
C 41% / P 59%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
57/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
19 Aug
Matched earnings event is 18 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 183 contracts traded, $310490 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$310490
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 148 contracts traded, $114500 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$114500
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 64 contracts traded, $75590 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$75590
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 84 contracts traded, $71600 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$71600
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 63 contracts traded, $71265 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$71265
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close83.90
1W+4.5%
RS-15.7
Fair value-14.4%
Options pressure13
Speculation40
Volatility49
Trend fit57
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:13
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 4.8%
30 Jul 10:10
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 6.8%
31 Jul 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 6.8%
31 Jul 15:49
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 5.3%
31 Jul 17:01
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 5.3%
31 Jul 19:44
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 6.2%
1 Aug 11:19
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 6.7%
1 Aug 18:04
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 4.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 99
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike69.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 31
Strike71.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike72.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.75
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.44
Put-call2.18
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.63
Put-call3.70
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.14
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.03
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.52
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.58
Skew-0.04
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.10
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.56
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractEL260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume360
OI1086
IV0.49
ContractEL260807P00081000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike81.00
Volume180
OI4
IV0.45
ContractEL260807C00087000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike87.00
Volume102
OI9
IV0.42
ContractEL260814C00081000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike81.00
Volume92
OI18
IV0.44
ContractEL260807C00082000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike82.00
Volume71
OI25
IV0.43
ContractEL260814P00080000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume68
OI7
IV0.43
ContractEL260814P00100000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume61
OI61
IV0.53
ContractEL260814P00104000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike104.00
Volume61
OI-
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.