Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MPC options intelligence
Marathon Petroleum Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
39
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:56 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MPC currently carries mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
9.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.09
Balanced tape
Trend fit
93
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.3%
RS 37.7
Expected move
9.1%
Put-call volume
1.09
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.50
Max pain
270.00
Underlying
309.24
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
601
Research Brief
MPC has a mixed chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 281.04–337.44; The largest call open-interest concentration is 340.00; the largest put concentration is 210.00. The most active strike by current volume is 330.00.
Priced range281.04–337.44
Call concentration340.00
Put concentration210.00
Max pain reference270.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 281.04 to 337.44. Max pain at 270.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
281.04309.24 ± 28.20337.44
Confirmation level
A close beyond 337.44 or below 281.04 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 39/100
Pressure is 0/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure0 × 42%
+0.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation34 × 22%
+7.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement93 × 26%
+24.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 340.00; the largest put concentration is 210.00. The most active strike by current volume is 330.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1137
210.00-32.1%
12
144
220.00-28.9%
388
377
230.00-25.6%
12
226
240.00-22.4%
182
259
250.00-19.2%
95
234
260.00-15.9%
713
424
270.00-12.7%
185
228
280.00-9.5%
332
288
290.00-6.2%
1259
216
300.00-3.0%
1033
171
310.000.2%
1245
259
320.003.5%
1027
55
330.006.7%
912
0
340.009.9%
1477
1
350.0013.2%
508
0
370.0019.6%
90
0
380.0022.9%
100
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.50
21 Aug
21d
0.46
18 Sep
49d
0.45
16 Oct
77d
0.44
18 Dec
140d
0.44
15 Jan
168d
0.44
19 Mar
231d
0.43
17 Jun
321d
0.39
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 601 / 601
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $16.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-0
1W price+2.3%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
93/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1091 contracts traded, $10.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 65% of visible notional.
$10.7M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 152 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 538 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1370 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 90 contracts traded, $639430 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$639430
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close316.47
1W+2.3%
RS37.7
Fair value+82.2%
Options pressure0
Speculation34
Volatility71
Trend fit93
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 9.4%
30 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 16:40
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 9.4%
30 Jul 17:10
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 9.4%
31 Jul 00:22
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 8.9%
31 Jul 13:56
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 9.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike155.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 49
Strike160.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 33
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 98
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike175.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike180.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike185.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts47
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.86
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.46
Put-call1.89
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts59
Avg IV0.45
Put-call3.42
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts89
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.99
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts94
Avg IV0.44
Put-call1.01
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.48
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.03
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.05
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.05
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMPC261016C00450000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike450.00
Volume-
OI380
IV0.49
ContractMPC280616P00370000
SidePut
Expiry16 Jun 2028
Strike370.00
Volume-
OI300
IV0.34
ContractMPC260918P00105000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike105.00
Volume-
OI113
IV1.47
ContractMPC260821P00165000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI98
IV1.65
ContractMPC260821P00160000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI33
IV1.56
ContractMPC260918C00430000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike430.00
Volume-
OI29
IV0.53
ContractMPC280616P00300000
SidePut
Expiry16 Jun 2028
Strike300.00
Volume-
OI28
IV0.37
ContractMPC280121P00250000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike250.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.65
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) logs -1.1% weekly dip after July strength31 Jul 2026 01:15
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) pauses as weekly advance loses pace28 Jul 2026 05:44
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) gains 10.2% as refiner’s weekly run accelerates24 Jul 2026 10:59
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) climbs 10.2% in weekly trading22 Jul 2026 22:14
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) extends weekly run as 12-week gain reaches 33.3%15 Jul 2026 17:44
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) extends its 12-week advance to 33.3%13 Jul 2026 23:39
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.