Ticker Options Intelligence

CART options intelligence

Maplebear Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 55 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:25 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CART currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 9.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.12

Call-side skew

Trend fit 7

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.7%

RS -1.4

Expected move 9.2%
Put-call volume 0.12
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.81
Max pain 47.00
Underlying 44.60
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 718

Research Brief

CART has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 40.50–48.70; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 47.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range40.50–48.70
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration47.00
Max pain reference47.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 40.50 to 48.70. Max pain at 47.00 sits inside that range, 5.4% above spot.

Spot Max pain
40.5044.60 ± 4.1048.70
Confirmation level

A close beyond 48.70 or below 40.50 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 55/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 84/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure84 × 42%
+35.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement7 × 26%
+1.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility93 × 10%
+9.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score55.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 47.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
53
37.00-17.0%
5
51
40.00-10.3%
0
0
40.50-9.2%
1
3
42.50-4.7%
3
15
43.00-3.6%
5
103
44.00-1.3%
8
0
45.000.9%
7
38
46.003.1%
23
0
46.504.3%
10
460
47.005.4%
6
8
48.007.6%
34
0
48.508.7%
33
65
49.009.9%
112
0
50.0012.1%
114
0
52.0016.6%
23
0
53.0018.8%
13
0
54.0021.1%
103
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.65× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.81 7 Aug 7d
0.67 14 Aug 14d
0.61 21 Aug 21d
0.56 28 Aug 28d
0.54 4 Sep 35d
0.50 11 Sep 42d
0.51 18 Sep 49d
0.48 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

36
37
38
39
39
40
41
42
42
43
44
45
46
46
47
48
49
49
50
51
53
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
718 / 718
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

86/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $220440 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+84
1W price+5.7%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split C 87% / P 13% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 7/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 1418 contracts traded, $164842 estimated gross traded notional, and 75% of visible notional.
$164842
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 62 contracts traded, $7606 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$7606
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 48 contracts traded, $7190 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$7190
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $6490 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$6490
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 8 contracts traded, $5160 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$5160

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close44.60
1W+5.7%
RS-1.4
Fair value+15.8%
Options pressure84
Speculation41
Volatility93
Trend fit7

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.81 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.12 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:29 Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 8.5%
30 Jul 10:24 Volatility
Pressure 65
Move 4.5%
31 Jul 10:20 Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 7.1%
2 Aug 18:25 Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 9.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike32.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike33.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike34.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.81
Put-call0.99
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.67
Put-call3.00
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts102
Avg IV0.61
Put-call1.74
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.80
Put IV1.04
Skew0.24
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.13
Put IV1.19
Skew0.06
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.67
Skew0.12
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.70
Skew0.17
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.85
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.38

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCART261016C00055000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1367
OI5108
IV0.50
ContractCART260828C00055000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume73
OI3
IV0.31
ContractCART261016C00060000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume50
OI315
IV0.55
ContractCART261016P00038000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike38.00
Volume46
OI45
IV0.55
ContractCART260821P00041500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike41.50
Volume44
OI2
IV0.67
ContractCART260807P00037000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike37.00
Volume35
OI53
IV0.57
ContractCART260807C00045000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume27
OI7
IV0.68
ContractCART260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume13
OI171
IV0.73