Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
UBS options intelligence
UBS Group AG options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:08 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
UBS currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
5.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.77
Balanced tape
Trend fit
87
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+1.9%
RS 13.1
Expected move
5.8%
Put-call volume
0.77
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.30
Max pain
47.50
Underlying
51.74
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
226
Research Brief
UBS has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 48.72–54.76; The largest call open-interest concentration is 52.50; the largest put concentration is 47.50. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00.
Priced range48.72–54.76
Call concentration52.50
Put concentration47.50
Max pain reference47.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 48.72 to 54.76. Max pain at 47.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
48.7251.74 ± 3.0254.76
Confirmation level
A close beyond 54.76 or below 48.72 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 9/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure9 × 42%
+4.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation20 × 22%
+4.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement87 × 26%
+22.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility44 × 10%
+4.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 52.50; the largest put concentration is 47.50. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
282
27.50-46.8%
3
88
30.00-42.0%
20
186
32.50-37.2%
1
763
35.00-32.4%
124
574
37.50-27.5%
482
664
40.00-22.7%
977
490
42.50-17.9%
541
851
45.00-13.0%
1148
3774
47.50-8.2%
1601
666
50.00-3.4%
1598
410
52.501.5%
2153
413
55.006.3%
1356
0
57.5011.1%
818
1
60.0016.0%
966
0
65.0025.6%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.30
21 Aug
22d
0.29
18 Sep
50d
0.30
20 Nov
113d
0.30
15 Jan
169d
0.31
19 Feb
204d
0.30
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
43
45
48
50
53
55
58
60
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 226 / 226
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $205210 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+9
1W price+1.9%
Call premium68%
Put premium32%
Notional split
C 68% / P 32%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
87/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 555 contracts traded, $35918 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$35918
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 61 contracts traded, $30235 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$30235
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $25030 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$25030
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 209 contracts traded, $20900 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$20900
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 76 contracts traded, $19910 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$19910
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close52.74
1W+1.9%
RS13.1
Fair value+58.8%
Options pressure9
Speculation20
Volatility44
Trend fit87
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:00
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 6.6%
30 Jul 10:00
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 03:29
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 13:08
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 5.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 282
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 88
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 186
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 124
Puts · V 0 · OI 763
Strike37.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 482
Puts · V 0 · OI 574
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 977
Puts · V 1 · OI 664
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 541
Puts · V 0 · OI 490
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1148
Puts · V 1 · OI 851
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.60
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.29
Put-call1.98
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.30
Put-call5.63
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts44
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.15
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.31
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.30
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.32
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.32
Skew0.05
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.31
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUBS260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume409
OI1356
IV0.27
ContractUBS260821P00052500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike52.50
Volume209
OI410
IV0.28
ContractUBS260821P00050000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume162
OI666
IV0.31
ContractUBS260821C00057500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike57.50
Volume141
OI818
IV0.26
ContractUBS260918P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume71
OI327
IV0.30
ContractUBS260918P00052500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike52.50
Volume54
OI759
IV0.28
ContractUBS261120P00047500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike47.50
Volume43
OI453
IV0.32
ContractUBS260918C00052500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike52.50
Volume43
OI21
IV0.28
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.