Ticker Options Intelligence

MP options intelligence

MP Materials Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 00:03 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 10.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.47

Call-side skew

Trend fit 10

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.2%

RS -37.8

Expected move 10.2%
Put-call volume 0.47
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.88
Max pain 44.00
Underlying 41.37
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 854

Research Brief

MP has a bullish chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 37.14–45.60; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 44.00. The most active strike by current volume is 41.00.

Priced range37.14–45.60
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration44.00
Max pain reference44.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 37.14 to 45.60. Max pain at 44.00 sits inside that range, 6.4% above spot.

Spot Max pain
37.1441.37 ± 4.2345.60
Confirmation level

A close beyond 45.60 or below 37.14 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 38/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure38 × 42%
+15.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement10 × 26%
+2.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score36.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 44.00. The most active strike by current volume is 41.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
178
40.00-3.3%
288
527
41.00-0.9%
319
65
41.500.3%
24
223
42.001.5%
262
47
43.003.9%
169
1031
44.006.4%
105
122
45.008.8%
930
22
46.0011.2%
287
102
47.0013.6%
149
217
48.0016.0%
116
104
49.0018.4%
80
86
50.0020.9%
1029
37
51.0023.3%
200
103
52.0025.7%
82
39
55.0032.9%
379
7
57.0037.8%
459
39
60.0045.0%
564
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.88 7 Aug 7d
0.78 14 Aug 14d
0.74 21 Aug 21d
0.76 28 Aug 28d
0.77 4 Sep 35d
0.73 11 Sep 42d
0.72 18 Sep 49d
0.69 18 Dec 140d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

34
35
35
36
37
38
39
39
40
41
42
43
43
44
45
46
47
47
48
49
50
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
854 / 854
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

87/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+38
1W price+0.2%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split C 69% / P 31% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 10/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 2844 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 412 contracts traded, $304470 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$304470
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 363 contracts traded, $221384 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$221384
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 185 contracts traded, $218025 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$218025
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 141 contracts traded, $206718 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$206718

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close41.37
1W+0.2%
RS-37.8
Fair value+22.2%
Options pressure38
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit10

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.88 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.47 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:25 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 5.9%
30 Jul 10:21 Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 9.3%
30 Jul 18:43 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 3.9%
31 Jul 12:58 Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 4.1%
31 Jul 15:29 Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 2.2%
31 Jul 15:58 Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 1.6%
31 Jul 16:34 Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 1.8%
31 Jul 16:58 Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 1.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike31.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike31.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike32.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 22
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 21
Strike33.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 69
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 31 · OI 35

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.88
Put-call0.65
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.32
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.74
Put-call1.86
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.76
Put-call0.18
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.77
Put-call3.84

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.87
Put IV0.88
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.85
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.07
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.76
Put IV0.78
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.77
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.75
Skew-0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMP261218C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike45.00
Volume997
OI308
IV0.71
ContractMP280121C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike50.00
Volume870
OI1332
IV0.71
ContractMP260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume522
OI1524
IV0.78
ContractMP260814C00060000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume500
OI684
IV1.03
ContractMP260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume454
OI4156
IV0.78
ContractMP260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume430
OI6525
IV0.83
ContractMP260918P00040000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume366
OI5338
IV0.71
ContractMP260918P00030000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume365
OI3764
IV0.72