Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
VLY options intelligence
Valley National Bancorp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 17:18 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
VLY currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
6.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
2.06
Put-side skew
Trend fit
59
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.3%
RS 9.0
Expected move
6.1%
Put-call volume
2.06
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.54
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
14.29
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
114
Research Brief
VLY has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.42–15.16; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.
Priced range13.42–15.16
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration14.00
Max pain reference15.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 13.42 to 15.16. Max pain at 15.00 sits inside that range, 5.0% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
13.4214.29 ± 0.8715.16
Confirmation level
A close beyond 15.16 or below 13.42 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 47/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure47 × 42%
+19.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 × 22%
+3.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement59 × 26%
+15.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility62 × 10%
+6.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
9.00-37.0%
12
5
10.00-30.0%
0
21
12.00-16.0%
0
8
13.00-9.0%
3
322
14.00-2.0%
78
316
15.005.0%
171
0
16.0012.0%
119
0
17.0019.0%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$3,184Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$74,867
Negative peak13.00-$34,016
Nearest balance13.96Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
3.00-79.0%
-$227
5.00-65.0%
-$1,849
6.00-58.0%
-$6,850
7.00-51.0%
-$3,999
8.00-44.0%
-$10,430
9.00-37.0%
-$796
10.00-30.0%
-$13,889
11.00-23.0%
+$3,192
12.00-16.0%
-$19,134
13.00-9.0%
-$34,016
14.00-2.0%
+$1,269
15.005.0%
+$74,867
16.0012.0%
+$7,843
17.0019.0%
+$5,764
18.0026.0%
+$346
19.0033.0%
+$41
20.0040.0%
+$1,052
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.54
21 Aug
18d
0.44
18 Sep
46d
0.36
18 Dec
137d
0.30
15 Jan
165d
0.40
19 Mar
228d
0.35
21 Jan
536d
0.55
15 Dec
865d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
12
13
14
15
16
17
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 114 / 114
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $307,113 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-47
1W price-0.3%
Call premium59%
Put premium41%
Notional split
C 59% / P 41%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
59/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 330 contracts traded, $145,128 estimated gross traded notional, and 47% of visible notional.
$145,128
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 1004 contracts traded, $88,100 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$88,100
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 114 contracts traded, $21,757 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$21,757
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 45 contracts traded, $16,182 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$16,182
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 101 contracts traded, $9,090 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$9,090
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close14.29
1W-0.3%
RS9.0
Fair value+51.8%
Options pressure-47
Speculation17
Volatility62
Trend fit59
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:32
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 6.5%
30 Jul 10:30
Bearish
Pressure -85
Move 7.0%
30 Jul 19:19
Bearish
Pressure -62
Move 6.8%
31 Jul 15:06
Bearish
Pressure -47
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 23:20
Bearish
Pressure -47
Move 6.5%
2 Aug 21:59
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 6.5%
3 Aug 16:18
Bearish
Pressure -47
Move 6.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 21
Strike13.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 8
Strike14.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 78
Puts · V 4 · OI 322
Strike15.00
Calls · V 50 · OI 171
Puts · V 50 · OI 316
Strike16.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 119
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.54
Put-call1.11
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.47
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV0.36
Put-call38.24
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts27
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.26
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts2
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.37
Skew-0.08
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.41
Skew0.13
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.39
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.02
Skew-0.37
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.42
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractVLY261218P00006000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike6.00
Volume-
OI1400
IV0.76
ContractVLY270115C00013000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike13.00
Volume-
OI40
IV0.43
ContractVLY281215C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.88
ContractVLY261218C00018000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike18.00
Volume-
OI15
IV0.36
ContractVLY260821C00009000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume-
OI12
IV1.32
ContractVLY281215C00017000
SideCall
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.54
ContractVLY270319C00016000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike16.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.37
ContractVLY281215P00008000
SidePut
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike8.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.81
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.