Ticker Options Intelligence

HLMN options intelligence

Hillman Solutions Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 60 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 04:35 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

HLMN currently carries volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 22.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 22.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 34

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.3%

RS -18.5

Expected move 22.9%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.95
Max pain 7.50
Underlying 7.97
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 50

Research Brief

HLMN has a volatility chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 6.15–9.79; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range6.15–9.79
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference7.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 6.15 to 9.79. Max pain at 7.50 sits inside that range, 5.9% below spot.

Spot Max pain
6.157.97 ± 1.829.79
Confirmation level

A close beyond 9.79 or below 6.15 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 60/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 96/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation5 × 22%
+1.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement34 × 26%
+8.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score59.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
74
2.50-68.6%
0
20
5.00-37.3%
1
18
7.50-5.9%
0
0
10.0025.5%
2
0
12.5056.8%
0
0
15.0088.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.64× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.95 21 Aug 21d
0.44 18 Sep 49d
0.36 16 Oct 77d
0.36 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

8
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
50 / 50
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

95/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $50 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-96
1W price-1.3%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split C 0% / P 100% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 34/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $50 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$50

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close7.87
1W-1.3%
RS-18.5
Fair value-12.1%
Options pressure-96
Speculation5
Volatility96
Trend fit34

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 22.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.95 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:07 Volatility
Pressure -95
Move 21.9%
29 Jul 22:14 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 73.6%
30 Jul 15:08 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 79.5%
30 Jul 15:32 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 79.6%
30 Jul 20:11 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 74.1%
31 Jul 05:53 Volatility
Pressure -62
Move 21.0%
1 Aug 03:35 Volatility
Pressure -96
Move 22.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 10 · OI 20
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.95
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts12
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.15
Skew-0.35
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.10
Skew-0.22
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.08
Skew-0.18
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.11

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHLMN260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume10
OI20
IV0.92
ContractHLMN261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI82
IV0.26
ContractHLMN260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI74
IV2.15
ContractHLMN270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI60
IV0.17
ContractHLMN261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI26
IV0.01
ContractHLMN260821P00007500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI18
IV0.15
ContractHLMN261016P00007500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI7
IV0.08
ContractHLMN260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.50