- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
HLMN
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Hillman Solutions Corp · Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Latest close
7.97 USD
-1.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.5%, after a -5.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 60/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 2d.
Setup score
36
out of 100
Latest Close
7.97 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-1.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
-5.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
1.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
46.2%
24 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-1.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move -5.9%.
Indicator stack
25/100
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Volatility
60/100 conviction; expected move 22.9%.
News sentiment
58/100
45 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
2d
Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.5%, after a -5.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1412-week average 0.06
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure5/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.14Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -5.9% over four weeks, 1.4% over 12 weeks, and -1.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year24
Trend breadth46.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.10Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change1316.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-17.27Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-7.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 94%
Model confidence 90%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength75/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Value74/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Quality73/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Momentum27/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
Growth80/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 43.6x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.4x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 14.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 46.1% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 6.8% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 21.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 3.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 5.5% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 94.7% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 27.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.6% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
HLMN shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 22.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction60/100
Expected move22.9%
Put/call volume
Insider activity8 / 1
8 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment58/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.
19 positive · 24 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move22.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-26.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher10 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+11.8%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-11.0%Week of 20 Feb.
Latest week-1.5%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains3
Flat weeks1
Modest losses8
Sharp losses7
Recent vol5.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.1% / -3.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.7%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS56.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Tools & Accessories
4-week rank9 / 9
Group average-2.3%
Trend breadth66.7%
Trend66.7%active weekly trend signals
MD55.6%positive activity pressure
RS77.8%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape36/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 36/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis20/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 5/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.14; No reversal markers Factors63/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 34; Small Cap Core rank 33 SVQF33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 485.0 of 726 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options47/100HLMN shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 22.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 22.9% Sentiment58/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Revenue Breakdown – NASDAQ:HLMN Insiders8 / 18 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 7.97 USD | -1.5% | 8.43 USD | 8.97 USD | 0.10 | -17.27 | 5.1M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 8.09 USD | 4.7% | 8.46 USD | 8.98 USD | 0.36 | -17.66 | 6.1M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 7.73 USD | -4.8% | 8.49 USD | 8.99 USD | 0.30 | -24.84 | 5.2M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 8.12 USD | -4.1% | 8.54 USD | 9.00 USD | 0.28 | -19.99 | 5.9M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 8.47 USD | 5.1% | 8.56 USD | 9.00 USD | 0.01 | -16.09 | 10.8M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 8.06 USD | 4.4% | 8.57 USD | 9.01 USD | -0.60 | -23.85 | 6.2M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 7.72 USD | 5.8% | 8.59 USD | 9.01 USD | -1.00 | -25.30 | 11.9M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 7.30 USD | -2.1% | 8.61 USD | 9.01 USD | -1.32 | -27.96 | 11.0M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 7.46 USD | 1.4% | 8.66 USD | 9.02 USD | -1.36 | -30.03 | 6.0M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 7.36 USD | 2.1% | 8.72 USD | 9.03 USD | -1.18 | -29.33 | 5.0M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 7.21 USD | -8.3% | 8.79 USD | 9.03 USD | -0.92 | -30.31 | 5.8M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 7.86 USD | 0.0% | 8.87 USD | 9.04 USD | -0.70 | -24.80 | 5.2M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 7.86 USD | -10.8% | 8.92 USD | 9.04 USD | -0.63 | -21.17 | 9.3M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 8.81 USD | -0.7% | 8.96 USD | 9.04 USD | -0.76 | -10.62 | 5.9M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.