Ticker Options Intelligence

FCEL options intelligence

FuelCell Energy Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 61 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 01:27 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

FCEL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 61/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 17.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.38

Call-side skew

Trend fit 78

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +1.6%

RS 87.7

Expected move 17.0%
Put-call volume 0.38
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 1.48
Max pain 22.00
Underlying 21.61
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 956

Research Brief

FCEL has a volatility chain read with 61/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 17.94–25.28; The largest call open-interest concentration is 27.00; the largest put concentration is 23.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.

Priced range17.94–25.28
Call concentration27.00
Put concentration23.00
Max pain reference22.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 17.94 to 25.28. Max pain at 22.00 sits inside that range, 1.8% above spot.

Spot Max pain
17.9421.61 ± 3.6725.28
Confirmation level

A close beyond 25.28 or below 17.94 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 61/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 52/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement78 × 26%
+20.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score60.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 27.00; the largest put concentration is 23.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
8
15.50-28.3%
0
200
16.00-26.0%
5
164
17.00-21.3%
17
126
19.00-12.1%
120
29
19.50-9.8%
28
507
20.00-7.5%
151
425
21.00-2.8%
112
106
21.50-0.5%
37
377
22.001.8%
496
55
22.504.1%
85
677
23.006.4%
141
349
24.0011.1%
236
44
25.0015.7%
515
3
25.5018.0%
16
12
27.0024.9%
1079
52
30.0038.8%
331
11
35.0062.0%
216
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.13× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.48 7 Aug 7d
1.43 14 Aug 14d
1.44 21 Aug 21d
1.43 28 Aug 28d
1.45 4 Sep 35d
1.47 11 Sep 42d
1.46 18 Sep 49d
1.43 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
956 / 956
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.0M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+52
1W price+1.6%
Call premium79%
Put premium21%
Notional split C 79% / P 21% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 78/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 867 contracts traded, $647400 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$647400
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 482 contracts traded, $538760 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$538760
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 2379 contracts traded, $238887 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$238887
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 2576 contracts traded, $192588 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$192588
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 468 contracts traded, $161542 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$161542

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close21.61
1W+1.6%
RS87.7
Fair value+23.1%
Options pressure52
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit78

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 17.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.48 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.38 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:11 Volatility
Pressure 42
Move 17.2%
30 Jul 10:57 Volatility
Pressure 31
Move 17.2%
30 Jul 23:37 Volatility
Pressure 44
Move 13.1%
31 Jul 10:31 Volatility
Pressure 47
Move 13.1%
2 Aug 00:27 Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 17.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 118
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 61
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 36
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 36
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 36
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 12
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts162
Avg IV1.48
Put-call0.30
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts140
Avg IV1.43
Put-call2.46
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV1.44
Put-call0.08
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV1.43
Put-call2.58
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV1.45
Put-call2.33

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.46
Put IV1.46
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.49
Put IV1.41
Skew-0.08
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.49
Put IV1.42
Skew-0.07
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.55
Put IV1.46
Skew-0.09
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.65
Put IV1.61
Skew-0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractFCEL260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume1568
OI2302
IV1.49
ContractFCEL260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume750
OI1331
IV2.02
ContractFCEL260807C00025000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume733
OI515
IV1.46
ContractFCEL260807C00023000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike23.00
Volume573
OI141
IV1.47
ContractFCEL260807C00025500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike25.50
Volume434
OI16
IV1.46
ContractFCEL260807C00022000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume425
OI496
IV1.44
ContractFCEL260807P00015500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.50
Volume402
OI8
IV1.05
ContractFCEL260814P00019000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume343
OI80
IV1.43