Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
LYB options intelligence
LyondellBasell Industries NV options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 02:48 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
LYB currently carries bearish options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
9.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.48
Put-side skew
Trend fit
95
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.9%
RS 2.5
Expected move
9.3%
Put-call volume
1.48
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.48
Max pain
60.00
Underlying
62.08
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
504
Research Brief
LYB has a bearish chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 56.30–67.86; The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.50.
Priced range56.30–67.86
Call concentration65.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference60.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 56.30 to 67.86. Max pain at 60.00 sits inside that range, 3.4% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
56.3062.08 ± 5.7867.86
Confirmation level
A close beyond 67.86 or below 56.30 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 26/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure26 × 42%
+10.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement95 × 26%
+24.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
51
35.00-43.6%
4
21
40.00-35.6%
0
22
42.50-31.5%
0
260
45.00-27.5%
0
593
47.50-23.5%
6
1029
50.00-19.5%
38
368
52.50-15.4%
5
1189
55.00-11.4%
530
318
57.50-7.4%
184
881
60.00-3.4%
1731
325
62.500.7%
1823
5
65.004.7%
4329
0
67.508.7%
1712
1
70.0012.8%
827
0
72.5016.8%
134
0
75.0020.8%
557
0
80.0028.9%
57
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.48
21 Aug
21d
0.45
18 Sep
49d
0.46
18 Dec
140d
0.46
15 Jan
168d
0.46
19 Mar
231d
0.46
17 Jun
321d
0.45
17 Dec
504d
0.46
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
50
53
55
58
60
63
65
68
70
73
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 504 / 504
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $656254 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-26
1W price+2.9%
Call premium47%
Put premium53%
Notional split
C 47% / P 53%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
95/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
7 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 2317 contracts traded, $242400 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$242400
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 296 contracts traded, $76960 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$76960
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 809 contracts traded, $71906 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$71906
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 230 contracts traded, $44822 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$44822
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 31 contracts traded, $38480 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$38480
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close62.08
1W+2.9%
RS2.5
Fair value-8.9%
Options pressure-26
Speculation41
Volatility71
Trend fit95
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:18
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 10.4%
30 Jul 10:13
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 10.3%
30 Jul 17:53
Volatility
Pressure -21
Move 9.9%
31 Jul 13:40
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 9.3%
31 Jul 15:49
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 9.6%
31 Jul 16:11
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 9.5%
31 Jul 17:27
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 9.2%
31 Jul 23:22
Volatility
Pressure -35
Move 9.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike37.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 260
Strike47.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 154 · OI 593
Strike50.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 38
Puts · V 1 · OI 1029
Strike52.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 16 · OI 368
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.48
Put-call2.09
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.15
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.41
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts76
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.13
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV0.46
Put-call5.25
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.50
Skew0.09
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.51
Skew0.09
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.49
Skew0.08
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.50
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLYB260821P00057500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike57.50
Volume1588
OI318
IV0.46
ContractLYB260821P00060000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume545
OI881
IV0.44
ContractLYB260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume538
OI827
IV0.46
ContractLYB260821C00062500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike62.50
Volume296
OI1823
IV0.46
ContractLYB260821C00065000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume260
OI4329
IV0.45
ContractLYB260821P00047500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike47.50
Volume154
OI593
IV0.44
ContractLYB270115C00120000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike120.00
Volume100
OI797
IV0.49
ContractLYB260918C00072500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike72.50
Volume76
OI306
IV0.46
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.