Ticker Options Intelligence

GPRK options intelligence

GeoPark Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 12:15 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

GPRK currently carries mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 10.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.00

Balanced tape

Trend fit 86

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -2.5%

RS 9.4

Expected move 10.3%
Put-call volume 1.00
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.85
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 10.00
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 64

Research Brief

GPRK has a mixed chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.98–11.02; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range8.98–11.02
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 8.98 to 11.02. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 0.0% from spot.

Spot Max pain
8.9810.00 ± 1.0311.03
Confirmation level

A close beyond 11.02 or below 8.98 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 11/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement86 × 26%
+22.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
2.50-75.0%
0
2
5.00-50.0%
0
11
7.50-25.0%
0
43
10.000.0%
95
0
12.5025.0%
74
0
15.0050.0%
0
0
17.5075.0%
0
0
20.00100.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 89% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$47,149Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak10.00+$27,623
Negative peak7.50-$523
Nearest balance7.55Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-75.0%
-$2
5.00-50.0%
+$97
7.50-25.0%
-$523
10.000.0%
+$27,623
12.5025.0%
+$19,761
15.0050.0%
+$20
17.5075.0%
+$50
20.00100.0%
+$122
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.95× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.85 21 Aug 21d
0.51 18 Sep 49d
0.51 18 Dec 140d
0.44 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
64 / 64
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

86/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $258 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+11
1W price-2.5%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split C 84% / P 16% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 86/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $205 estimated gross traded notional, and 80% of visible notional.
$205
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $30 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$30
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $12 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$12
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $10 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$10

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.75
1W-2.5%
RS9.4
Fair value+20.8%
Options pressure11
Speculation8
Volatility96
Trend fit86

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.85 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:20 Volatility
Pressure -76
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 11:59 Volatility
Pressure 55
Move 13.8%
31 Jul 00:14 Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 11.3%
31 Jul 01:16 Volatility
Pressure -73
Move 11.3%
1 Aug 11:15 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 10.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 11
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 95
Puts · V 0 · OI 43
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 74
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.85
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.40
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.55
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.83
Skew0.28
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.69
Skew0.50
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.60
Skew0.46

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGPRK261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume5
OI119
IV0.19
ContractGPRK260821P00007500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume2
OI11
IV0.55
ContractGPRK261218P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume2
OI2
IV0.96
ContractGPRK260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2
OI2
IV1.26
ContractGPRK260918C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI1717
IV0.55
ContractGPRK260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI1006
IV0.46
ContractGPRK260918P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI171
IV0.37
ContractGPRK261218C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI152
IV0.48