Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
DLTR options intelligence
Dollar Tree Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 01:16 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
DLTR currently carries mixed options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
6.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.78
Balanced tape
Trend fit
48
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+5.6%
RS 3.8
Expected move
6.5%
Put-call volume
0.78
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.68
Max pain
118.00
Underlying
120.45
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1268
Research Brief
DLTR has a mixed chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 112.68–128.22; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00.
Priced range112.68–128.22
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration110.00
Max pain reference118.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 112.68 to 128.22. Max pain at 118.00 sits inside that range, 2.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
112.68120.45 ± 7.77128.22
Confirmation level
A close beyond 128.22 or below 112.68 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 17/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility73 × 10%
+7.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
129
80.00-33.6%
196
163
85.00-29.4%
2
143
95.00-21.1%
1
10
101.00-16.1%
8
26
102.00-15.3%
11
1
105.00-12.8%
58
69
106.00-12.0%
58
188
110.00-8.7%
64
27
111.00-7.8%
63
95
114.00-5.4%
1
92
115.00-4.5%
4
144
120.00-0.4%
6
98
121.000.5%
41
108
122.001.3%
28
88
126.004.6%
80
29
128.006.3%
166
7
130.007.9%
138
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.68
31 Jul
0d
0.38
7 Aug
7d
0.38
14 Aug
14d
0.40
21 Aug
21d
0.46
28 Aug
28d
0.50
4 Sep
35d
0.49
11 Sep
42d
0.48
18 Sep
49d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
97
99
102
104
106
109
111
113
116
118
121
123
125
128
130
132
135
137
139
142
144
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1268 / 1268
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+17
1W price+5.6%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
48/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 509 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 70% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 211 contracts traded, $65884 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$65884
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 34 contracts traded, $62815 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$62815
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 542 contracts traded, $52946 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$52946
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $41258 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$41258
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close127.21
1W+5.6%
RS3.8
Fair value+21.5%
Options pressure17
Speculation41
Volatility73
Trend fit48
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:17
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.6%
30 Jul 10:13
Volatility
Pressure -39
Move 7.7%
31 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 3.8%
31 Jul 17:28
Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 6.5%
31 Jul 20:22
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 6.5%
1 Aug 00:16
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 6.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 5 · OI 3
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 9 · OI 6
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 196
Puts · V 7 · OI 129
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 163
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 122
Strike95.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 143
Strike96.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 40
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts140
Avg IV0.68
Put-call1.52
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.38
Put-call1.62
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.10
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.40
Put-call4.30
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts102
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.47
Skew0.40
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.39
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.38
Skew0.05
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.39
Skew-0.08
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractDLTR260828C00165000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume240
OI22
IV0.69
ContractDLTR260828C00170000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike170.00
Volume194
OI45
IV0.64
ContractDLTR260731P00110000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike110.00
Volume191
OI188
IV1.07
ContractDLTR260731P00111000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike111.00
Volume153
OI27
IV1.01
ContractDLTR260814C00165000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume130
OI509
IV0.66
ContractDLTR260814C00155000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike155.00
Volume120
OI226
IV0.37
ContractDLTR260814C00160000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume92
OI653
IV0.73
ContractDLTR260828C00160000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume90
OI1
IV0.48
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.