Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TM options intelligence
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 07:43 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
TM currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
9.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.54
Put-side skew
Trend fit
91
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+6.5%
RS -14.2
Expected move
9.7%
Put-call volume
1.54
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.33
Max pain
190.00
Underlying
177.42
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
520
Research Brief
TM has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 160.29–194.55; The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 170.00.
Priced range160.29–194.55
Call concentration180.00
Put concentration195.00
Max pain reference190.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 160.29 to 194.55. Max pain at 190.00 sits inside that range, 7.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
160.29177.42 ± 17.13194.55
Confirmation level
A close beyond 194.55 or below 160.29 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 22/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure22 × 42%
+9.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation27 × 22%
+6.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement91 × 26%
+23.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility62 × 10%
+6.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 170.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6
125.00-29.5%
0
10
140.00-21.1%
0
38
145.00-18.3%
0
32
150.00-15.5%
0
35
155.00-12.6%
0
103
160.00-9.8%
3
179
165.00-7.0%
1
86
170.00-4.2%
18
252
175.00-1.4%
84
70
180.001.5%
254
88
185.004.3%
100
40
190.007.1%
107
519
195.009.9%
110
4
200.0012.7%
85
0
210.0018.4%
129
0
220.0024.0%
15
0
230.0029.6%
12
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.33
21 Aug
21d
0.29
18 Sep
49d
0.29
16 Oct
77d
0.28
18 Dec
140d
0.29
15 Jan
168d
0.29
19 Mar
231d
0.28
17 Jun
321d
0.27
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 520 / 520
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $236044 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-22
1W price+6.5%
Call premium58%
Put premium42%
Notional split
C 58% / P 42%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
91/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 79 contracts traded, $79430 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$79430
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 42 contracts traded, $39802 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$39802
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $37100 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$37100
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $28645 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$28645
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $11980 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$11980
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close188.99
1W+6.5%
RS-14.2
Fair value-0.1%
Options pressure-22
Speculation27
Volatility62
Trend fit91
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:49
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 6.8%
29 Jul 14:20
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 11.4%
29 Jul 14:40
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 11.5%
29 Jul 15:06
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 11.4%
29 Jul 15:30
Bearish
Pressure -27
Move 11.4%
29 Jul 15:50
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 11.4%
29 Jul 16:10
Bearish
Pressure -27
Move 11.4%
29 Jul 16:38
Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 11.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 38
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 32
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 35
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 12 · OI 103
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.33
Put-call2.03
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.29
Put-call1.59
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.29
Put-call7.89
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.11
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts80
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.13
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.34
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.02
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.33
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.31
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.32
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTM260821P00170000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike170.00
Volume80
OI86
IV0.36
ContractTM261016P00185000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike185.00
Volume71
OI48
IV0.30
ContractTM260821C00210000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume26
OI129
IV0.35
ContractTM260918P00165000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike165.00
Volume25
OI142
IV0.30
ContractTM260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume22
OI85
IV0.32
ContractTM260821P00185000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike185.00
Volume17
OI88
IV0.27
ContractTM270115C00210000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike210.00
Volume16
OI88
IV0.26
ContractTM260821P00160000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume12
OI103
IV0.42
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.