Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
UDOW options intelligence
PROSHARES TRUST ULTRAPRO DOW30 options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 15:28 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
UDOW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
7.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.79
Balanced tape
Trend fit
77
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.8%
RS 10.8
Expected move
7.6%
Put-call volume
0.79
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
68.00
Underlying
70.10
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
427
Research Brief
UDOW has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 64.78–75.42; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 76.00.
Priced range64.78–75.42
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration65.00
Max pain reference68.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 64.78 to 75.42. Max pain at 68.00 sits inside that range, 3.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
64.7870.10 ± 5.3275.42
Confirmation level
A close beyond 75.42 or below 64.78 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 18/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure18 × 42%
+7.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement77 × 26%
+20.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility61 × 10%
+6.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 76.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
18
50.00-28.7%
74
53
55.00-21.5%
20
52
58.00-17.3%
10
65
60.00-14.4%
14
68
61.00-13.0%
1
208
65.00-7.3%
50
53
67.00-4.4%
38
21
68.00-3.0%
261
53
69.00-1.6%
28
195
70.00-0.1%
134
5
71.001.3%
109
34
72.002.7%
149
13
73.004.1%
157
0
74.005.6%
142
112
75.007.0%
44
0
76.008.4%
99
81
80.0014.1%
275
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$529,935Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak70.00+$59,949
Negative peak65.00-$65,128
Nearest balance69.07Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
62.00-11.6%
-$4,458
62.50-10.8%
+$13,739
63.00-10.1%
-$4,169
64.00-8.7%
-$17,895
65.00-7.3%
-$65,128
66.00-5.8%
+$156
67.00-4.4%
+$16,757
67.50-3.7%
+$12,619
68.00-3.0%
+$55,001
69.00-1.6%
-$4,619
70.00-0.1%
+$59,949
71.001.3%
+$33,958
72.002.7%
+$36,217
72.503.4%
+$14,686
73.004.1%
+$38,966
74.005.6%
+$40,362
75.007.0%
+$31,028
76.008.4%
+$19,997
77.009.8%
+$6,157
77.5010.6%
+$9,054
78.0011.3%
+$1,052
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.44
21 Aug
18d
0.49
18 Sep
46d
0.51
18 Dec
137d
0.63
15 Jan
165d
0.51
19 Mar
228d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
58
59
60
62
63
64
65
66
68
69
70
71
72
74
75
76
77
78
80
81
82
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes96%
Open interest96%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 427 / 427
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment
Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+18
1W price+2.8%
Call premium72%
Put premium28%
Notional split
C 72% / P 28%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
77/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 341 contracts traded, $854,862 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$854,862
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 258 contracts traded, $491,509 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$491,509
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 284 contracts traded, $479,412 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$479,412
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 100 contracts traded, $164,413 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$164,413
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 440 contracts traded, $133,500 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$133,500
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close70.10
1W+2.8%
RS10.8
Fair value+51.7%
Options pressure18
Speculation42
Volatility61
Trend fit77
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:18
Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 10.6%
30 Jul 13:07
Bullish
Pressure 76
Move 8.5%
31 Jul 12:43
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.7%
3 Aug 08:16
Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 7.1%
3 Aug 14:28
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 7.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 74
Puts · V 1 · OI 18
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 20
Puts · V 1 · OI 53
Strike58.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 10
Puts · V 1 · OI 52
Strike59.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 7
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 14
Puts · V 2 · OI 65
Strike61.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 22 · OI 68
Strike62.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 13
Puts · V 2 · OI 52
Strike63.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 49
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts49
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.40
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts65
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.32
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.51
Put-call3.39
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts249
Avg IV0.63
Put-call0.71
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.36
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.49
Skew0.10
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.62
Skew0.13
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.54
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.26
Put IV0.71
Skew-0.55
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.54
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUDOW270115P00045500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115P00077500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike77.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115P00033000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike33.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115P00031000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike31.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115P00050500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115P00028000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike28.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115P00030500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractUDOW270115C00038000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike38.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.