Ticker Options Intelligence

TD options intelligence

Toronto Dominion Bank options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 42 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 16:06 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 4.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.57

Call-side skew

Trend fit 74

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -3.1%

RS 19.3

Expected move 4.1%
Put-call volume 0.57
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.25
Max pain 120.00
Underlying 119.78
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 207

Research Brief

TD has a bullish chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 114.86–124.70; The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 125.00. The most active strike by current volume is 120.00.

Priced range114.86–124.70
Call concentration125.00
Put concentration125.00
Max pain reference120.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 114.86 to 124.70. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 0.2% above spot.

Spot Max pain
114.86119.78 ± 4.92124.70
Confirmation level

A close beyond 124.70 or below 114.86 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 42/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 25/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure25 × 42%
+10.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement74 × 26%
+19.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score42.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 125.00. The most active strike by current volume is 120.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
80.00-33.2%
0
3
85.00-29.0%
0
0
90.00-24.9%
3
8
95.00-20.7%
0
9
100.00-16.5%
3
108
105.00-12.3%
100
714
110.00-8.2%
411
389
115.00-4.0%
242
1776
120.000.2%
1695
1955
125.004.4%
2369
0
130.008.5%
811
0
135.0012.7%
94
0
140.0016.9%
1
0
160.0033.6%
50
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.02× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.25 21 Aug 21d
0.24 18 Sep 49d
0.25 16 Oct 77d
0.24 15 Jan 168d
0.25 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
207 / 207
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call-heavy activity with trend alignment

84/100
Primary intent Call-heavy activity with trend alignment

Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $6.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+25
1W price-3.1%
Call premium94%
Put premium6%
Notional split C 94% / P 6% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 74/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 909 contracts traded, $5.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 77% of visible notional.
$5.0M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 269 contracts traded, $757960 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$757960
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 198 contracts traded, $176750 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$176750
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 517 contracts traded, $93574 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$93574
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 92 contracts traded, $82715 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$82715

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close119.78
1W-3.1%
RS19.3
Fair value+75.4%
Options pressure25
Speculation41
Volatility34
Trend fit74

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.1% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.25 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.57 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:00 Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 10:00 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 4.6%
30 Jul 23:24 Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 4.3%
31 Jul 07:12 Mixed
Pressure -18
Move 4.3%
31 Jul 15:06 Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 4.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike80.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 8
Strike100.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 9
Strike105.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 100
Puts · V 2 · OI 108
Strike110.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 411
Puts · V 2 · OI 714
Strike115.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 242
Puts · V 11 · OI 389

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.23
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.24
Put-call1.47
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.62
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts77
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.54
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts54
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.17

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.24
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.24
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.24
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.24
Skew0.01
21 Jan 2028Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTD280121C00067500
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike67.50
Volume-
OI4
IV0.00
ContractTD260918P00090000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.55
ContractTD260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.47
ContractTD260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI3
IV1.06
ContractTD280121C00170000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike170.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.27
ContractTD280121P00090000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.31
ContractTD261016P00060000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.75
ContractTD270115P00145000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike145.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.27

Research Graph

Related research and context

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