Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CPA options intelligence
Copa Holdings SA options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 16:25 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CPA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
9.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.39
Call-side skew
Trend fit
51
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.6%
RS 3.8
Expected move
9.5%
Put-call volume
0.39
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.49
Max pain
140.00
Underlying
141.22
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
364
Research Brief
CPA has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 127.82–154.62; The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 130.00.
Priced range127.82–154.62
Call concentration180.00
Put concentration110.00
Max pain reference140.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 127.82 to 154.62. Max pain at 140.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
127.82141.22 ± 13.40154.62
Confirmation level
A close beyond 154.62 or below 127.82 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 41/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure41 × 42%
+17.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation10 × 22%
+2.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility72 × 10%
+7.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 130.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
142
90.00-36.3%
0
139
100.00-29.2%
1
301
105.00-25.6%
0
317
110.00-22.1%
2
57
120.00-15.0%
56
287
125.00-11.5%
65
151
130.00-7.9%
46
110
135.00-4.4%
54
41
140.00-0.9%
78
138
145.002.7%
206
36
150.006.2%
308
98
155.009.8%
139
5
160.0013.3%
227
0
165.0016.8%
157
0
170.0020.4%
221
0
175.0023.9%
80
0
180.0027.5%
398
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.49
21 Aug
21d
0.44
18 Sep
49d
0.44
20 Nov
112d
0.42
18 Dec
140d
0.41
15 Jan
168d
0.41
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 364 / 364
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $29278 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+41
1W price+3.6%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split
C 69% / P 31%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
51/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 42 contracts traded, $15015 estimated gross traded notional, and 51% of visible notional.
$15015
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $7935 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$7935
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $4800 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$4800
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $770 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$770
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $520 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$520
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close141.22
1W+3.6%
RS3.8
Fair value+42.4%
Options pressure41
Speculation10
Volatility72
Trend fit51
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:37
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 10.9%
30 Jul 10:33
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 9.2%
30 Jul 15:21
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 10.2%
30 Jul 15:41
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 10.7%
30 Jul 19:50
Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 10.2%
31 Jul 03:10
Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 10.5%
31 Jul 12:16
Volatility
Pressure -44
Move 10.5%
31 Jul 13:55
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 11.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 41
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 142
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.50
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.44
Put-call2.80
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.42
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.51
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.49
Skew0.08
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.47
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.47
Skew0.08
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.46
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCPA261120C00175000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike175.00
Volume42
OI48
IV0.41
ContractCPA260918P00135000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike135.00
Volume11
OI16
IV0.46
ContractCPA260918C00140000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike140.00
Volume5
OI4
IV0.42
ContractCPA270115P00090000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike90.00
Volume4
OI32
IV0.54
ContractCPA260918P00125000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike125.00
Volume2
OI31
IV0.45
ContractCPA260821C00150000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume1
OI308
IV0.48
ContractCPA260821P00130000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume1
OI151
IV0.51
ContractCPA260821C00155000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike155.00
Volume1
OI139
IV0.45
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.