Ticker Options Intelligence

GBDC options intelligence

Golub Capital BDC Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 35 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 21:29 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

GBDC currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.9%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.62

Call-side skew

Trend fit 79

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +0.4%

RS -8.0

Expected move 5.9%
Put-call volume 0.62
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.74
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 12.78
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 33

Research Brief

GBDC has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.03–13.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range12.03–13.53
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 12.03 to 13.53. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 2.2% below spot.

Spot Max pain
12.0312.78 ± 0.7513.53
Confirmation level

A close beyond 13.53 or below 12.03 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 35/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 12/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure12 × 42%
+5.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement79 × 26%
+20.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility75 × 10%
+7.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score34.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-80.4%
0
0
5.00-60.9%
0
0
7.50-41.3%
0
1348
10.00-21.8%
0
1849
12.50-2.2%
1044
9
15.0017.4%
487
0
17.5036.9%
20
0
20.0056.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.33× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.74 21 Aug 21d
0.43 18 Sep 49d
0.71 20 Nov 112d
0.55 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes97%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
33 / 33
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

79/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $37404 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+12
1W price+0.4%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split C 90% / P 10% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 79/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 31 contracts traded, $25235 estimated gross traded notional, and 67% of visible notional.
$25235
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $6405 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$6405
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 8 contracts traded, $1820 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1820
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $1500 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1500
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 21 contracts traded, $1090 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$1090

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close12.83
1W+0.4%
RS-8.0
Fair value+3.1%
Options pressure12
Speculation8
Volatility75
Trend fit79

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.74 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.62 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:51 Volatility
Pressure -100
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 10:42 Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 6.5%
30 Jul 17:10 Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 13:10 Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 6.5%
31 Jul 20:29 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 5.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 1348
Strike12.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1044
Puts · V 5 · OI 1849
Strike15.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 487
Puts · V 8 · OI 9
Strike17.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.72
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts2
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.71
Put-call0.72
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts5
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.39

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.13
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.35
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.87
Skew0.60
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.91
Skew0.61

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGBDC260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI31
IV0.35
ContractGBDC261120P00020000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.87
ContractGBDC260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.52
ContractGBDC261120P00017500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.71
ContractGBDC261120P00022500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.99
ContractGBDC260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.50
ContractGBDC261120C00002500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.50
Volume21
OI-
IV4.77
ContractGBDC261120P00012500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike12.50
Volume20
OI1658
IV0.87