Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AER options intelligence
AerCap Holdings NV options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
48
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:05 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
AER currently carries bearish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
5.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
9.08
Put-side skew
Trend fit
35
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.3%
RS 1.8
Expected move
5.7%
Put-call volume
9.08
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.29
Max pain
150.00
Underlying
151.30
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
234
Research Brief
AER has a bearish chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 142.65–159.95; The largest call open-interest concentration is 160.00; the largest put concentration is 140.00. The most active strike by current volume is 150.00.
Priced range142.65–159.95
Call concentration160.00
Put concentration140.00
Max pain reference150.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 142.65 to 159.95. Max pain at 150.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
142.65151.30 ± 8.65159.95
Confirmation level
A close beyond 159.95 or below 142.65 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 48/100
Pressure is 73/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure73 × 42%
+30.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation19 × 22%
+4.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement35 × 26%
+9.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility43 × 10%
+4.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 160.00; the largest put concentration is 140.00. The most active strike by current volume is 150.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
90.00-40.5%
0
0
100.00-33.9%
6
1
115.00-24.0%
0
11
120.00-20.7%
0
4
125.00-17.4%
0
176
130.00-14.1%
4
89
135.00-10.8%
4
890
140.00-7.5%
9
67
145.00-4.2%
64
217
150.00-0.9%
173
68
155.002.4%
242
0
160.005.8%
410
0
165.009.1%
137
0
170.0012.4%
44
0
175.0015.7%
5
0
185.0022.3%
1
0
200.0032.2%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.29
21 Aug
22d
0.28
18 Sep
50d
0.28
16 Oct
78d
0.29
15 Jan
169d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 234 / 234
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $80632 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-73
1W price-0.3%
Call premium44%
Put premium56%
Notional split
C 44% / P 56%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
35/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 252 contracts traded, $23755 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$23755
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 75 contracts traded, $21750 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$21750
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $10900 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$10900
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $9360 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$9360
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $9320 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$9320
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close150.90
1W-0.3%
RS1.8
Fair value+45.3%
Options pressure-73
Speculation19
Volatility43
Trend fit35
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:18
Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 7.5%
30 Jul 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 10:05
Bearish
Pressure -73
Move 5.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.28
Put-call50.20
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.28
Put-call1.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts78
Avg IV0.29
Put-call8.33
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.32
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.31
Skew0.04
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.31
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.33
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAER260918P00130000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume250
OI106
IV0.36
ContractAER270115P00120000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike120.00
Volume75
OI488
IV0.39
ContractAER260821C00150000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume20
OI173
IV0.25
ContractAER270115C00155000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike155.00
Volume8
OI95
IV0.28
ContractAER260918C00165000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike165.00
Volume5
OI7
IV0.27
ContractAER270115C00060000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike60.00
Volume1
OI651
IV0.01
ContractAER260821C00160000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume1
OI410
IV0.26
ContractAER260918P00145000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike145.00
Volume1
OI67
IV0.31
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.