Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PGY options intelligence
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
39
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 10:57 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PGY currently carries bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
14.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.52
Call-side skew
Trend fit
22
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+21.3%
RS -17.6
Expected move
14.3%
Put-call volume
0.52
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.74
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
19.27
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
364
Research Brief
PGY has a bullish chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 16.52–22.02; The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.
Priced range16.52–22.02
Call concentration20.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference15.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 16.52 to 22.02. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
16.5219.27 ± 2.7522.02
Confirmation level
A close beyond 22.02 or below 16.52 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 39/100
Pressure is 36/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure36 × 42%
+15.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement22 × 26%
+5.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility92 × 10%
+9.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
8101
7.00-63.7%
13
14576
8.00-58.5%
8
17303
10.00-48.1%
820
883
12.00-37.7%
489
2083
13.00-32.5%
635
965
14.00-27.3%
517
3486
15.00-22.2%
916
712
16.00-17.0%
846
395
17.00-11.8%
1355
290
18.00-6.6%
4062
1217
19.00-1.4%
942
518
20.003.8%
16720
316
21.009.0%
3355
77
22.0014.2%
780
5
24.0024.5%
13228
300
25.0029.7%
1981
0
27.0040.1%
1192
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.74
21 Aug
21d
0.75
18 Sep
49d
0.82
20 Nov
112d
0.78
15 Jan
168d
0.81
19 Feb
203d
0.85
17 Jun
321d
0.89
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 364 / 364
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.1M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+36
1W price+21.3%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split
C 54% / P 46%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
22/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 1506 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1825 contracts traded, $671652 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$671652
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 407 contracts traded, $330565 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$330565
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 951 contracts traded, $294998 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$294998
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 3028 contracts traded, $253420 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$253420
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close19.27
1W+21.3%
RS-17.6
Fair value+14.9%
Options pressure36
Speculation41
Volatility92
Trend fit22
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:10
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 21.7%
30 Jul 10:56
Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 15:31
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 16.5%
30 Jul 15:46
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 16.0%
30 Jul 17:42
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 16.4%
30 Jul 19:41
Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 17.0%
30 Jul 20:02
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 17.8%
31 Jul 17:05
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 23.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 25
Puts · V 0 · OI 34
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 193
Puts · V 0 · OI 345
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 8101
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 125 · OI 14576
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.25
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.92
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.82
Put-call0.29
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts56
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.18
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts60
Avg IV0.81
Put-call12.33
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.81
Skew0.13
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.79
Skew0.09
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.83
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.86
Skew0.10
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.91
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPGY260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume2001
OI16720
IV0.70
ContractPGY280121P00020000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike20.00
Volume1504
OI53
IV0.92
ContractPGY270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume665
OI2688
IV0.79
ContractPGY260821C00021000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike21.00
Volume578
OI3355
IV0.69
ContractPGY270617C00025000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike25.00
Volume568
OI398
IV0.79
ContractPGY260821C00022000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume342
OI780
IV0.68
ContractPGY260821C00017000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume294
OI1355
IV0.78
ContractPGY260821C00018000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume279
OI4062
IV0.77
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.