Ticker Options Intelligence

MSA options intelligence

MSA Safety options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 33 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:00 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

MSA currently carries mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.72.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 18.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.72

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.71

Call-side skew

Trend fit 58

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +2.1%

RS -5.2

Expected move 18.0%
Put-call volume 0.71
Volume / OI 0.72
Reference IV 0.75
Max pain 160.00
Underlying 174.64
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 47

Research Brief

MSA has a mixed chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 143.27–206.01; The largest call open-interest concentration is 175.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 150.00.

Priced range143.27–206.01
Call concentration175.00
Put concentration150.00
Max pain reference160.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 143.27 to 206.01. Max pain at 160.00 sits inside that range, 8.4% below spot.

Spot Max pain
143.27174.64 ± 31.37206.01
Confirmation level

A close beyond 206.01 or below 143.27 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 33/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 8/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure8 × 42%
+3.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation25 × 22%
+5.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement58 × 26%
+15.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility92 × 10%
+9.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score33.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 175.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 150.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
140.00-19.8%
0
1
145.00-17.0%
0
3
150.00-14.1%
0
3
155.00-11.2%
0
1
160.00-8.4%
0
0
175.000.2%
2
0
185.005.9%
1
0
195.0011.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.42× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.75 21 Aug 21d
0.40 18 Sep 49d
0.36 18 Dec 140d
0.31 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

140
145
150
155
160
175
185
195
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
47 / 47
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

80/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $88382 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+8
1W price+2.1%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split C 84% / P 16% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.72 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 58/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 36 contracts traded, $51880 estimated gross traded notional, and 59% of visible notional.
$51880
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $17215 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$17215
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 29 contracts traded, $9032 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$9032
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $2665 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$2665
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1975 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$1975

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Speculative chase

Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close174.64
1W+2.1%
RS-5.2
Fair value+4.0%
Options pressure8
Speculation25
Volatility92
Trend fit58

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 18.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.75 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.71 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.72 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:35 Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 10:32 Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 10:22 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 17:00 Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 18.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike175.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV0.75
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.55
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.78
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.76
Skew0.40
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.93
Skew0.60
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.37
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMSA261218P00145000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike145.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.53
ContractMSA260821P00155000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI3
IV1.07
ContractMSA260918C00210000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.35
ContractMSA261218P00180000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike180.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.70
ContractMSA260918C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.45
ContractMSA260918C00200000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike200.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.24
ContractMSA260821P00140000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.11
ContractMSA260821P00160000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.76