Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
RGLD options intelligence
Royal Gold Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
32
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 21:38 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
RGLD currently carries mixed options pressure with a 32/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
7.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.88
Balanced tape
Trend fit
44
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.3%
RS -17.7
Expected move
7.9%
Put-call volume
0.88
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.48
Max pain
190.00
Underlying
198.35
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
431
Research Brief
RGLD has a mixed chain read with 32/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 182.60–214.10; The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 175.00. The most active strike by current volume is 220.00.
Priced range182.60–214.10
Call concentration190.00
Put concentration175.00
Max pain reference190.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 182.60 to 214.10. Max pain at 190.00 sits inside that range, 4.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
182.60198.35 ± 15.75214.10
Confirmation level
A close beyond 214.10 or below 182.60 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 32/100
Pressure is 12/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure12 × 42%
+5.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement44 × 26%
+11.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 175.00. The most active strike by current volume is 220.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
150.00-24.4%
1
15
155.00-21.9%
0
83
160.00-19.3%
0
11
165.00-16.8%
0
192
170.00-14.3%
16
477
175.00-11.8%
15
182
180.00-9.3%
6
132
185.00-6.7%
8
283
190.00-4.2%
594
65
195.00-1.7%
146
177
200.000.8%
412
22
210.005.9%
268
20
220.0010.9%
231
5
230.0016.0%
306
2
240.0021.0%
159
0
250.0026.0%
110
0
260.0031.1%
384
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.2MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak200.00+$216,973
Negative peak180.00-$316,665
Nearest balance195.68Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
130.00-34.5%
+$2,596
135.00-31.9%
-$2,115
140.00-29.4%
-$15,889
145.00-26.9%
-$19,347
150.00-24.4%
-$4,381
155.00-21.9%
-$7,219
160.00-19.3%
-$1,332
165.00-16.8%
-$7,164
170.00-14.3%
-$45,942
175.00-11.8%
-$186,607
180.00-9.3%
-$316,665
185.00-6.7%
-$256,424
190.00-4.2%
+$147,528
195.00-1.7%
-$34,259
200.000.8%
+$216,973
210.005.9%
+$201,513
220.0010.9%
+$107,914
230.0016.0%
+$133,916
240.0021.0%
+$189,034
250.0026.0%
+$143,109
260.0031.1%
+$121,316
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.48
21 Aug
18d
0.45
18 Sep
46d
0.45
16 Oct
74d
0.44
18 Dec
137d
0.43
15 Jan
165d
0.44
21 Jan
536d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 431 / 431
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+12
1W price-1.3%
Call premium50%
Put premium50%
Notional split
C 50% / P 50%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
44/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 207 contracts traded, $1.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$1.8M
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 194 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 144 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 465 contracts traded, $324,114 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$324,114
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 55 contracts traded, $246,110 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$246,110
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close198.35
1W-1.3%
RS-17.7
Fair value+22.2%
Options pressure12
Speculation42
Volatility65
Trend fit44
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:19
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 8.2%
30 Jul 10:14
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 10:06
Bullish
Pressure 82
Move 8.1%
1 Aug 08:41
Bearish
Pressure -40
Move 8.1%
2 Aug 16:51
Bearish
Pressure -40
Move 8.2%
3 Aug 20:38
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 7.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike150.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 5 · OI 5
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 15
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 83
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike170.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 16
Puts · V 1 · OI 192
Strike175.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 15
Puts · V 1 · OI 477
Strike180.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 2 · OI 182
Strike185.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 8
Puts · V 1 · OI 132
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.11
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.45
Put-call2.48
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.45
Put-call1.45
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts91
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.97
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts83
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.44
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRGLD280121C00110000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike110.00
Volume-
OI9
IV1.88
ContractRGLD280121P00115000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike115.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.45
ContractRGLD260918C00440000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike440.00
Volume-
OI9
IV1.12
ContractRGLD261218P00390000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike390.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.00
ContractRGLD261016P00140000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike140.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.59
ContractRGLD261016P00125000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike125.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.66
ContractRGLD260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.90
ContractRGLD260918C00105000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike105.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.93
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.