Ticker Options Intelligence

ORI options intelligence

Old Republic International Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 29 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 05:26 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ORI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.06

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.1%

RS -1.1

Expected move 6.3%
Put-call volume 0.06
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.26
Max pain 40.00
Underlying 42.29
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 72

Research Brief

ORI has a bullish chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 39.64–44.94; The largest call open-interest concentration is 45.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range39.64–44.94
Call concentration45.00
Put concentration40.00
Max pain reference40.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 39.64 to 44.94. Max pain at 40.00 sits inside that range, 5.4% below spot.

Spot Max pain
39.6442.29 ± 2.6544.94
Confirmation level

A close beyond 44.94 or below 39.64 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 96/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation17 × 22%
+3.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility43 × 10%
+4.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score48.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 45.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
20.00-52.7%
0
0
22.50-46.8%
0
0
25.00-40.9%
0
1
30.00-29.1%
0
8
35.00-17.2%
0
34
40.00-5.4%
56
5
45.006.4%
139
0
50.0018.2%
0
0
55.0030.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.37× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.26 21 Aug 22d
0.16 18 Sep 50d
0.19 16 Oct 78d
0.19 15 Jan 169d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

35
40
45
50
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
29 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
72 / 72
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

66/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9716 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+96
1W price+0.1%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split C 93% / P 7% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 30 contracts traded, $3542 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$3542
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 49 contracts traded, $3185 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$3185
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $1185 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1185
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $595 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$595
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $500 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$500

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 1 completed session

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close42.29
1W+0.1%
RS-1.1
Fair value+32.1%
Options pressure96
Speculation17
Volatility43
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.3% history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
IV 0.26 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.06 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:29 Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 04:26 Bullish
Pressure 96
Move 6.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 56
Puts · V 0 · OI 34
Strike45.00
Calls · V 28 · OI 139
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike50.00
Calls · V 21 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.16
Put-call0.08
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.19
Put-call0.50
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.19
Put-call0.08

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.20
Skew-0.08
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.14
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.11
Skew-0.18
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.41
Skew0.20

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractORI260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume28
OI139
IV0.28
ContractORI260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume23
OI70
IV0.19
ContractORI260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume21
OI-
IV0.20
ContractORI270115C00050000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume11
OI460
IV0.06
ContractORI261016C00045000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike45.00
Volume5
OI450
IV0.19
ContractORI261016P00035000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume3
OI137
IV0.22
ContractORI260918P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume2
OI1
IV0.24
ContractORI260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume2
OI-
IV0.13