Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
KDK options intelligence
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 02:21 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
KDK currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 28.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
28.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.18
Call-side skew
Trend fit
20
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.8%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
28.8%
Put-call volume
0.18
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
1.20
Max pain
6.00
Underlying
4.35
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
262
Research Brief
KDK has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 3.10–5.60; The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 6.00.
Priced range3.10–5.60
Call concentration6.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference6.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 3.10 to 5.60. Max pain at 6.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
3.104.35 ± 1.255.60
Confirmation level
A close beyond 5.60 or below 3.10 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 80/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure80 × 42%
+33.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement20 × 26%
+5.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 6.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
1.00-77.0%
1
0
2.00-54.0%
0
1
3.00-31.0%
10
83
4.00-8.0%
82
923
5.0014.9%
345
115
6.0037.9%
13121
5327
7.0060.9%
1449
50
8.0083.9%
3753
5
9.00106.9%
97
469
10.00129.9%
182
0
11.00152.9%
7
0
12.00175.9%
0
0
13.00198.9%
0
0
14.00221.8%
0
190
15.00244.8%
0
0
16.00267.8%
0
1
19.00336.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.20
21 Aug
21d
0.41
18 Sep
49d
0.59
16 Oct
77d
0.58
20 Nov
112d
0.66
18 Dec
140d
1.05
15 Jan
168d
0.62
19 Mar
231d
0.72
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
4
5
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 262 / 262
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $28435 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+80
1W price+4.8%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split
C 93% / P 7%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
20/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 467 contracts traded, $25205 estimated gross traded notional, and 89% of visible notional.
$25205
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 86 contracts traded, $1860 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1860
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $930 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$930
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $240 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$240
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $102 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$102
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close4.35
1W+4.8%
RS-
Fair value-43.3%
Options pressure80
Speculation40
Volatility96
Trend fit20
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:10
Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 18.7%
29 Jul 15:55
Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 17.5%
31 Jul 10:12
Volatility
Pressure 20
Move 18.1%
1 Aug 09:37
Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 28.8%
2 Aug 01:21
Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 28.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 82
Puts · V 0 · OI 83
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 345
Puts · V 0 · OI 923
Strike6.00
Calls · V 11 · OI 13121
Puts · V 0 · OI 115
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1449
Puts · V 0 · OI 5327
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3753
Puts · V 0 · OI 50
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV1.20
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.59
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.05
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.01
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.75
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.06
Put IV0.17
Skew-0.89
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.14
Skew-0.04
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.76
Put IV2.05
Skew1.30
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.80
Put IV1.95
Skew1.15
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractKDK280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume274
OI9507
IV0.75
ContractKDK261218C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume86
OI30
IV0.13
ContractKDK270115P00002500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.50
Volume85
OI33
IV0.43
ContractKDK261120C00006000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike6.00
Volume21
OI764
IV0.76
ContractKDK270319C00005000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike5.00
Volume21
OI1
IV0.64
ContractKDK270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume20
OI930
IV1.45
ContractKDK280121C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike15.00
Volume20
OI611
IV0.41
ContractKDK260821C00006000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume11
OI13121
IV1.13
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.