Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
COP options intelligence
ConocoPhillips options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
33
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:00 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
COP currently carries mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
1.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.17
Balanced tape
Trend fit
73
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.2%
RS 6.6
Expected move
1.7%
Put-call volume
1.17
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.39
Max pain
111.00
Underlying
120.26
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1426
Research Brief
COP has a mixed chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 118.18–122.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 113.00. The most active strike by current volume is 117.00.
Priced range118.18–122.34
Call concentration130.00
Put concentration113.00
Max pain reference111.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 118.18 to 122.34. Max pain at 111.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
118.18120.26 ± 2.08122.34
Confirmation level
A close beyond 122.34 or below 118.18 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 33/100
Pressure is 4/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure4 × 42%
+1.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement73 × 26%
+18.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 113.00. The most active strike by current volume is 117.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
349
107.00-11.0%
99
86
108.00-10.2%
319
130
109.00-9.4%
229
150
110.00-8.5%
214
254
112.00-6.9%
111
651
113.00-6.0%
178
140
114.00-5.2%
192
227
115.00-4.4%
495
124
117.00-2.7%
376
101
118.00-1.9%
263
56
119.00-1.0%
658
230
120.00-0.2%
799
112
121.000.6%
240
10
122.001.4%
672
0
124.003.1%
329
4
125.003.9%
283
1
130.008.1%
10017
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.39
31 Jul
1d
0.41
7 Aug
8d
0.37
14 Aug
15d
0.37
21 Aug
22d
0.35
28 Aug
29d
0.34
4 Sep
36d
0.34
11 Sep
43d
0.34
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
117
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
140
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1426 / 1426
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.2M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-4
1W price+0.2%
Call premium65%
Put premium35%
Notional split
C 65% / P 35%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
73/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1404 contracts traded, $549868 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$549868
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 192 contracts traded, $432365 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$432365
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 157 contracts traded, $354478 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$354478
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 272 contracts traded, $285548 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$285548
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1417 contracts traded, $252412 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$252412
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close120.48
1W+0.2%
RS6.6
Fair value+17.3%
Options pressure-4
Speculation41
Volatility34
Trend fit73
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 2.7%
31 Jul 10:00
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 1.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 23
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 277
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike90.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike91.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike92.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 35
Strike93.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 46
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.32
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.41
Put-call1.37
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.05
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts120
Avg IV0.37
Put-call4.60
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.03
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.42
Skew0.02
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.41
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.37
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.39
Skew0.05
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.37
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCOP260821P00110000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume634
OI2309
IV0.38
ContractCOP260821P00115000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike115.00
Volume613
OI1708
IV0.39
ContractCOP261218P00105000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike105.00
Volume434
OI537
IV0.35
ContractCOP261218P00110000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike110.00
Volume403
OI1552
IV0.35
ContractCOP260918C00130000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume247
OI4039
IV0.32
ContractCOP260918C00125000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike125.00
Volume210
OI3708
IV0.31
ContractCOP260807P00117000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike117.00
Volume185
OI66
IV0.41
ContractCOP260918C00120000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike120.00
Volume180
OI7194
IV0.31
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.