Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
NTRS options intelligence
Northern Trust Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 16:09 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
NTRS currently carries bearish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
4.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
6.94
Put-side skew
Trend fit
35
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+0.9%
RS 15.3
Expected move
4.9%
Put-call volume
6.94
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.23
Max pain
180.00
Underlying
182.19
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
354
Research Brief
NTRS has a bearish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 173.31–191.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 170.00.
Priced range173.31–191.07
Call concentration190.00
Put concentration170.00
Max pain reference180.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 173.31 to 191.07. Max pain at 180.00 sits inside that range, 1.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
173.31182.19 ± 8.88191.07
Confirmation level
A close beyond 191.07 or below 173.31 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 68/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure68 × 42%
+28.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement35 × 26%
+9.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility36 × 10%
+3.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 170.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
120.00-34.1%
0
0
125.00-31.4%
0
0
130.00-28.6%
0
0
135.00-25.9%
0
20
145.00-20.4%
0
2
150.00-17.7%
0
2
155.00-14.9%
0
4
160.00-12.2%
0
119
165.00-9.4%
5
505
170.00-6.7%
9
69
175.00-3.9%
41
25
180.00-1.2%
89
42
185.001.5%
111
4
190.004.3%
1839
1
195.007.0%
36
0
200.009.8%
86
0
210.0015.3%
10
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.23
21 Aug
21d
0.24
18 Sep
49d
0.24
16 Oct
77d
0.27
18 Dec
140d
0.28
15 Jan
168d
0.33
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 354 / 354
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $17550 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-68
1W price+0.9%
Call premium41%
Put premium59%
Notional split
C 41% / P 59%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
35/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 114 contracts traded, $7980 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$7980
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $5760 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$5760
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $900 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$900
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $828 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$828
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $790 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$790
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close182.19
1W+0.9%
RS15.3
Fair value+70.6%
Options pressure-68
Speculation8
Volatility36
Trend fit35
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:13
Bearish
Pressure -46
Move 5.0%
30 Jul 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 4.8%
1 Aug 04:19
Bearish
Pressure -68
Move 4.9%
1 Aug 15:09
Bearish
Pressure -68
Move 4.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.23
Put-call7.25
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.24
Put-call1.50
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.27
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts68
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.25
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.26
Skew0.05
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.25
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.30
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.32
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNTRS260821P00170000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike170.00
Volume114
OI505
IV0.26
ContractNTRS260821C00180000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume8
OI89
IV0.26
ContractNTRS260821C00185000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike185.00
Volume4
OI111
IV0.21
ContractNTRS261016P00160000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike160.00
Volume3
OI18
IV0.29
ContractNTRS260918P00160000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike160.00
Volume3
OI3
IV0.27
ContractNTRS280121P00100000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike100.00
Volume3
OI-
IV0.41
ContractNTRS260821C00190000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike190.00
Volume2
OI1839
IV0.21
ContractNTRS260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume1
OI86
IV0.14
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.