Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MCD options intelligence
McDonald’s Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 05:12 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MCD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
4.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.72
Call-side skew
Trend fit
49
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.2%
RS -16.9
Expected move
4.3%
Put-call volume
0.72
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.34
Max pain
272.50
Underlying
264.76
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1498
Research Brief
MCD has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 253.35–276.17; The largest call open-interest concentration is 285.00; the largest put concentration is 250.00. The most active strike by current volume is 270.00.
Priced range253.35–276.17
Call concentration285.00
Put concentration250.00
Max pain reference272.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 253.35 to 276.17. Max pain at 272.50 sits inside that range, 2.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
253.35264.76 ± 11.41276.17
Confirmation level
A close beyond 276.17 or below 253.35 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 20/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure20 × 42%
+8.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement49 × 26%
+12.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility41 × 10%
+4.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 285.00; the largest put concentration is 250.00. The most active strike by current volume is 270.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
243
245.00-7.5%
5
878
250.00-5.6%
1
379
255.00-3.7%
15
472
260.00-1.8%
8
557
265.000.1%
85
213
267.501.0%
100
281
270.002.0%
269
139
272.502.9%
83
219
275.003.9%
355
10
277.504.8%
359
153
280.005.8%
500
13
282.506.7%
90
93
285.007.6%
706
4
290.009.5%
632
3
295.0011.4%
586
0
300.0013.3%
285
0
305.0015.2%
576
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.34
7 Aug
7d
0.30
14 Aug
14d
0.28
21 Aug
21d
0.26
28 Aug
28d
0.26
4 Sep
35d
0.26
11 Sep
42d
0.25
18 Sep
49d
0.24
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
215
225
230
240
245
248
253
258
260
265
268
273
278
280
285
290
293
298
303
305
315
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1498 / 1498
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $11.8M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+20
1W price+2.2%
Call premium43%
Put premium57%
Notional split
C 43% / P 57%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
49/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 2426 contracts traded, $4.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$4.3M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1022 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2243 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 231 contracts traded, $495022 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$495022
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 238 contracts traded, $410388 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$410388
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close270.64
1W+2.2%
RS-16.9
Fair value-4.1%
Options pressure20
Speculation42
Volatility41
Trend fit49
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 3.1%
30 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 2.7%
31 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 1.8%
1 Aug 00:13
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 4.3%
1 Aug 03:36
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 2.1%
1 Aug 04:12
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 4.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 3
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike205.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike215.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.80
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts120
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.41
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.36
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.21
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.44
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.35
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.28
Skew-
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.27
Skew-
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.29
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMCD280121P00250000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike250.00
Volume2021
OI451
IV0.28
ContractMCD261016C00280000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike280.00
Volume843
OI1922
IV0.23
ContractMCD260918C00290000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume660
OI4915
IV0.24
ContractMCD260807C00282500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike282.50
Volume588
OI90
IV0.36
ContractMCD260828C00290000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike290.00
Volume519
OI139
IV0.28
ContractMCD260807P00250000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike250.00
Volume499
OI878
IV0.36
ContractMCD260821C00285000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike285.00
Volume424
OI2700
IV0.28
ContractMCD260807C00270000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike270.00
Volume405
OI269
IV0.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.