Ticker Options Intelligence

HGV options intelligence

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:55 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

HGV currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.10.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.10

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.31

Call-side skew

Trend fit 28

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -5.6%

RS -6.9

Expected move 14.9%
Put-call volume 0.31
Volume / OI 0.10
Reference IV 0.78
Max pain 50.00
Underlying 48.89
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 51

Research Brief

HGV has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 41.59–56.19; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range41.59–56.19
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference50.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 41.59 to 56.19. Max pain at 50.00 sits inside that range, 2.3% above spot.

Spot Max pain
41.5948.89 ± 7.3056.19
Confirmation level

A close beyond 56.19 or below 41.59 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 63/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure63 × 42%
+26.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation18 × 22%
+4.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement28 × 26%
+7.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility95 × 10%
+9.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
50
30.00-38.6%
0
1
35.00-28.4%
0
16
40.00-18.2%
0
100
45.00-8.0%
0
369
50.002.3%
2025
1
55.0012.5%
146
0
60.0022.7%
3
0
65.0033.0%
2
0
70.0043.2%
2
0
75.0053.4%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.68× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.78 21 Aug 21d
0.63 16 Oct 77d
0.62 18 Dec 140d
0.47 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

40
45
50
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
51 / 51
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $340362 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+63
1W price-5.6%
Call premium46%
Put premium54%
Notional split C 46% / P 54% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.10 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 28/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ATM
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 265 contracts traded, $173575 estimated gross traded notional, and 51% of visible notional.
$173575
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 999 contracts traded, $122775 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$122775
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 167 contracts traded, $18130 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$18130
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $7700 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$7700
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $6865 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$6865

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close46.14
1W-5.6%
RS-6.9
Fair value+9.3%
Options pressure63
Speculation18
Volatility95
Trend fit28

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.78 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.31 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.10 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:43 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 12.8%
30 Jul 10:39 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 13:17 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 14.3%
31 Jul 15:53 Volatility
Pressure 63
Move 14.9%
31 Jul 19:55 Volatility
Pressure 63
Move 14.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 50 · OI 50
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 15 · OI 16
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 12 · OI 100
Strike50.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2025
Puts · V 1 · OI 369
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 146
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.78
Put-call19.75
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.63
Put-call0.10
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts15
Avg IV0.62
Put-call54.60
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts11
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.81
Skew0.28
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.65
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.61
Skew-0.04
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.02
Skew-0.51

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHGV270115P00055000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI200
IV0.50
ContractHGV270115C00070000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.50
ContractHGV261016P00065000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.00
ContractHGV261218C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.61
ContractHGV270115C00045000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.53
ContractHGV260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.38
ContractHGV260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.42
ContractHGV270115C00065000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.59