Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
SPY options intelligence
STATE STREET SPDR S&P 500 ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 19:30 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
SPY currently carries mixed options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 4.22.
Expected move
1.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
4.22
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.96
Balanced tape
Trend fit
85
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+1.1%
RS 0.0
Expected move
1.5%
Put-call volume
0.96
Volume / OI
4.22
Reference IV
0.17
Max pain
744.00
Underlying
747.03
Nearest expiry
3 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
SPY has a mixed chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 735.92–758.14; The largest call open-interest concentration is 754.00; the largest put concentration is 695.00. The most active strike by current volume is 756.00.
Priced range735.92–758.14
Call concentration754.00
Put concentration695.00
Max pain reference744.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 735.92 to 758.14. Max pain at 744.00 sits inside that range, 0.4% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
735.92747.03 ± 11.11758.14
Confirmation level
A close beyond 758.14 or below 735.92 at the 3 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 2/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure2 × 42%
+1.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation98 × 22%
+21.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement85 × 26%
+22.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility18 × 10%
+1.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 754.00; the largest put concentration is 695.00. The most active strike by current volume is 756.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5306
744.00-0.4%
9247
9502
745.00-0.3%
10588
6295
746.00-0.1%
10472
7433
747.000.0%
5762
5032
748.000.1%
8476
1465
749.000.3%
7260
2775
750.000.4%
11334
688
751.000.5%
5594
216
752.000.7%
9089
208
753.000.8%
11514
45
754.000.9%
12676
27
755.001.1%
10628
0
756.001.2%
7296
21
757.001.3%
3947
0
758.001.5%
3343
2
759.001.6%
1515
20
760.001.7%
7203
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$599.9MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak750.00+$966.8M
Negative peak740.00-$615.4M
Nearest balance747.19Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
737.00-1.3%
-$162.7M
738.00-1.2%
-$181.8M
739.00-1.1%
-$103.0M
740.00-0.9%
-$615.4M
741.00-0.8%
-$152.1M
742.00-0.7%
-$101.9M
743.00-0.5%
-$72.4M
744.00-0.4%
+$168.6M
745.00-0.3%
-$515.3M
746.00-0.1%
-$13.5M
747.000.0%
-$70.9M
748.000.1%
+$298.9M
749.000.3%
+$885.9M
750.000.4%
+$966.8M
751.000.5%
+$277.3M
752.000.7%
+$559.8M
753.000.8%
+$389.7M
754.000.9%
+$209.4M
755.001.1%
+$369.0M
756.001.2%
+$124.2M
757.001.3%
+$95.9M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.17
3 Aug
0d
0.14
4 Aug
1d
0.13
5 Aug
2d
0.14
6 Aug
3d
0.13
7 Aug
4d
0.12
10 Aug
7d
0.12
11 Aug
8d
0.13
12 Aug
9d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
600
635
670
698
705
711
718
725
732
739
746
753
760
767
774
781
787
794
825
860
895
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move1.1%
30 Jul
Bearish · 42
1.1% through expiry
0.9% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain19%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 10747
- 19% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Directional flow, confirmation needed
There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Directional flow, confirmation needed matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3B of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · atm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-2
1W price+1.1%
Call premium88%
Put premium12%
Notional split
C 88% / P 12%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
4.22
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
85/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 4486871 contracts traded, $1.1B estimated gross traded notional, and 82% of visible notional.
$1.1B
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 4111530 contracts traded, $129.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$129.6M
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 69123 contracts traded, $61.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$61.1M
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 96766 contracts traded, $24.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$24.8M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1701 contracts traded, $9.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$9.4M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close747.03
1W+1.1%
RS0.0
Fair value+29.2%
Options pressure-2
Speculation98
Volatility18
Trend fit85
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:09
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 0.9%
30 Jul 13:01
Bearish
Pressure -31
Move 1.5%
31 Jul 12:34
Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 0.9%
3 Aug 11:04
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 0.6%
3 Aug 14:40
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 1.0%
3 Aug 18:30
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 1.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike500.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 33 · OI 643
Strike505.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 5
Strike520.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 202 · OI 202
Strike525.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 35 · OI 485
Strike530.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 45 · OI 37
Strike535.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 6
Strike545.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Strike550.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 140
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Contracts285
Avg IV0.17
Put-call0.90
Expiry4 Aug 2026
Contracts230
Avg IV0.14
Put-call0.93
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Contracts205
Avg IV0.13
Put-call0.99
Expiry6 Aug 2026
Contracts198
Avg IV0.14
Put-call0.84
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts297
Avg IV0.13
Put-call1.89
Skew
Call/put IV balance
3 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.43
Skew0.19
4 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.33
Skew0.16
5 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.28
Skew0.13
6 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.26
Skew0.13
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.24
Skew0.11
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSPY260806P00525000
SidePut
Expiry6 Aug 2026
Strike525.00
Volume-
OI2000
IV1.03
ContractSPY260812P00510000
SidePut
Expiry12 Aug 2026
Strike510.00
Volume-
OI1780
IV0.69
ContractSPY260804C00789000
SideCall
Expiry4 Aug 2026
Strike789.00
Volume-
OI1706
IV0.20
ContractSPY260812P00515000
SidePut
Expiry12 Aug 2026
Strike515.00
Volume-
OI1681
IV0.67
ContractSPY260805C00794000
SideCall
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Strike794.00
Volume-
OI1411
IV0.18
ContractSPY260804P00580000
SidePut
Expiry4 Aug 2026
Strike580.00
Volume-
OI1403
IV1.06
ContractSPY260810C00850000
SideCall
Expiry10 Aug 2026
Strike850.00
Volume-
OI1397
IV0.25
ContractSPY260805C00782000
SideCall
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Strike782.00
Volume-
OI1100
IV0.13
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.