Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
DOW options intelligence
Dow Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
37
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:16 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
DOW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
4.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.68
Call-side skew
Trend fit
58
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.5%
RS -2.3
Expected move
4.8%
Put-call volume
0.68
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.43
Max pain
29.50
Underlying
29.84
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
642
Research Brief
DOW has a bullish chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 28.41–31.27; The largest call open-interest concentration is 31.00; the largest put concentration is 27.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.
Priced range28.41–31.27
Call concentration31.00
Put concentration27.00
Max pain reference29.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 28.41 to 31.27. Max pain at 29.50 sits inside that range, 1.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
28.4129.84 ± 1.4331.27
Confirmation level
A close beyond 31.27 or below 28.41 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 37/100
Pressure is 18/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure18 × 42%
+7.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement58 × 26%
+15.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility49 × 10%
+4.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 31.00; the largest put concentration is 27.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1062
26.00-12.9%
16
7290
27.00-9.5%
19
181
27.50-7.8%
1
103
28.00-6.2%
77
73
29.00-2.8%
115
38
29.50-1.1%
64
51
30.000.5%
211
6
30.502.2%
102
126
31.003.9%
1299
27
31.505.6%
106
125
32.007.2%
662
0
32.508.9%
490
2
33.0010.6%
289
0
33.5012.3%
151
11
34.0013.9%
145
6
35.0017.3%
237
0
36.0020.6%
553
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.43
7 Aug
7d
0.43
14 Aug
14d
0.42
21 Aug
21d
0.42
28 Aug
28d
0.43
4 Sep
35d
0.42
11 Sep
42d
0.45
18 Sep
49d
0.41
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
24
25
25
26
26
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
31
31
32
32
33
34
34
35
35
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 642 / 642
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $729164 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+18
1W price+1.5%
Call premium71%
Put premium29%
Notional split
C 71% / P 29%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
58/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 805 contracts traded, $109270 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$109270
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 607 contracts traded, $99497 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$99497
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 679 contracts traded, $67728 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$67728
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 237 contracts traded, $56122 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$56122
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 445 contracts traded, $39266 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$39266
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close30.29
1W+1.5%
RS-2.3
Fair value-18.3%
Options pressure18
Speculation40
Volatility49
Trend fit58
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:15
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 10:12
Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 3.1%
31 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 2.9%
31 Jul 16:19
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 1.4%
1 Aug 05:16
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 4.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike24.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 23
Strike24.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.58
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.16
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.97
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.98
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.61
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.45
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.44
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.45
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractDOW260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume697
OI15917
IV0.41
ContractDOW260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume627
OI8573
IV0.41
ContractDOW260807C00030000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume318
OI211
IV0.42
ContractDOW260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume262
OI11414
IV0.45
ContractDOW261218P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.50
Volume211
OI2331
IV0.49
ContractDOW260828P00026000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike26.00
Volume194
OI54
IV0.51
ContractDOW260807P00027000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike27.00
Volume193
OI7290
IV0.55
ContractDOW260807C00031500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike31.50
Volume149
OI106
IV0.42
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.