Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AXP options intelligence
American Express Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 07:33 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
AXP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
4.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.44
Call-side skew
Trend fit
17
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.1%
RS -7.9
Expected move
4.2%
Put-call volume
0.44
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.27
Max pain
337.50
Underlying
326.17
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1714
Research Brief
AXP has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 312.42–339.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 350.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 342.50.
Priced range312.42–339.92
Call concentration350.00
Put concentration195.00
Max pain reference337.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 312.42 to 339.92. Max pain at 337.50 sits inside that range, 3.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
312.42326.17 ± 13.75339.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 339.92 or below 312.42 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 43/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure43 × 42%
+18.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement17 × 26%
+4.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility35 × 10%
+3.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 350.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 342.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2532
195.00-40.2%
0
1009
200.00-38.7%
0
540
210.00-35.6%
0
956
230.00-29.5%
1
434
235.00-28.0%
0
1021
240.00-26.4%
1
1128
245.00-24.9%
0
1891
250.00-23.4%
0
365
255.00-21.8%
0
338
260.00-20.3%
0
311
315.00-3.4%
1
280
320.00-1.9%
16
5
337.503.5%
51
31
340.004.2%
137
11
342.505.0%
168
194
347.506.5%
112
23
350.007.3%
381
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.27
7 Aug
7d
0.26
14 Aug
14d
0.26
21 Aug
21d
0.26
28 Aug
28d
0.26
4 Sep
35d
0.26
11 Sep
42d
0.27
18 Sep
49d
0.27
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
265
275
285
295
300
305
313
318
323
328
333
338
343
348
353
360
365
370
375
380
390
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1714 / 1714
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+43
1W price+3.1%
Call premium70%
Put premium30%
Notional split
C 70% / P 30%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
17/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 4162 contracts traded, $760564 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$760564
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 727 contracts traded, $689746 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$689746
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 869 contracts traded, $565556 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$565556
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1728 contracts traded, $493710 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$493710
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 441 contracts traded, $317374 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$317374
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close336.25
1W+3.1%
RS-7.9
Fair value+24.5%
Options pressure43
Speculation41
Volatility35
Trend fit17
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 15:31
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 3.6%
29 Jul 15:54
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.6%
29 Jul 16:15
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.4%
29 Jul 16:40
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 3.4%
29 Jul 17:01
Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 3.4%
29 Jul 17:21
Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 3.3%
29 Jul 17:50
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 3.6%
29 Jul 18:11
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 3.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2532
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1009
Strike205.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 286
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 540
Strike215.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 92
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 149
Strike225.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 49
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 956
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts138
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.12
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts136
Avg IV0.26
Put-call2.06
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts146
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.35
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.71
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.26
Put-call1.94
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.25
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.25
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.25
Skew-
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.26
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.26
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAXP260807C00342500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike342.50
Volume1721
OI168
IV0.25
ContractAXP260807C00347500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike347.50
Volume1694
OI112
IV0.24
ContractAXP260821C00350000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike350.00
Volume501
OI835
IV0.25
ContractAXP260828C00425000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike425.00
Volume491
OI6
IV0.28
ContractAXP260821C00347500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike347.50
Volume450
OI18
IV0.24
ContractAXP260918C00340000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike340.00
Volume267
OI1536
IV0.26
ContractAXP260807C00340000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike340.00
Volume263
OI137
IV0.25
ContractAXP260821C00355000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike355.00
Volume258
OI367
IV0.25
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.