Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MC options intelligence
Moelis & Co options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
42
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 22:59 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MC currently carries mixed options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
10.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.66
Put-side skew
Trend fit
94
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.1%
RS -6.4
Expected move
10.1%
Put-call volume
1.66
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
60.00
Underlying
67.08
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
152
Research Brief
MC has a mixed chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 60.33–73.83; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00.
Priced range60.33–73.83
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference60.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 60.33 to 73.83. Max pain at 60.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
60.3367.08 ± 6.7573.83
Confirmation level
A close beyond 73.83 or below 60.33 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 42/100
Pressure is 17/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 × 22%
+3.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement94 × 26%
+24.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-55.3%
0
0
35.00-47.8%
0
0
40.00-40.4%
0
2
45.00-32.9%
0
0
50.00-25.5%
0
331
55.00-18.0%
7
44
60.00-10.6%
183
13
65.00-3.1%
15
1
70.004.4%
346
0
75.0011.8%
72
0
80.0019.3%
363
0
85.0026.7%
1
0
90.0034.2%
0
0
95.0041.6%
0
0
100.0049.1%
0
0
105.0056.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.44
21 Aug
21d
0.43
18 Sep
49d
0.41
16 Oct
77d
0.44
20 Nov
112d
0.44
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
55
60
65
70
75
80
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 152 / 152
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $12685 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-17
1W price+0.1%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split
C 54% / P 46%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
94/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 66 contracts traded, $5478 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$5478
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $4390 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$4390
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $2420 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$2420
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $240 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$240
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $158 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$158
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close67.08
1W+0.1%
RS-6.4
Fair value+14.2%
Options pressure-17
Speculation17
Volatility71
Trend fit94
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:40
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 10:36
Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 9.8%
31 Jul 03:30
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 8.9%
31 Jul 13:33
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 8.9%
31 Jul 13:41
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 10.2%
1 Aug 21:59
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 10.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 331
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 183
Puts · V 0 · OI 44
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 1 · OI 13
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.44
Put-call4.33
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.14
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.54
Skew0.11
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.46
Skew0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.46
Skew0.08
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.49
Skew0.09
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.46
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMC261120P00045000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike45.00
Volume64
OI67
IV0.57
ContractMC261016C00080000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike80.00
Volume17
OI15
IV0.39
ContractMC261120C00080000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike80.00
Volume13
OI40
IV0.41
ContractMC270115C00085000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike85.00
Volume7
OI262
IV0.37
ContractMC261016C00075000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike75.00
Volume2
OI174
IV0.41
ContractMC261120C00085000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2
OI1
IV0.39
ContractMC261120P00040000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1
OI113
IV0.62
ContractMC260821P00065000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume1
OI13
IV0.54
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.