Ticker Options Intelligence

NVO options intelligence

Novo Nordisk A/S options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 41 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 07:37 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

NVO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.07

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.53

Call-side skew

Trend fit 39

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -3.5%

RS -9.5

Expected move 6.8%
Put-call volume 0.53
Volume / OI 0.07
Reference IV 0.61
Max pain 50.00
Underlying 47.08
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 910

Research Brief

NVO has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 43.89–50.27; The largest call open-interest concentration is 52.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range43.89–50.27
Call concentration52.00
Put concentration45.00
Max pain reference50.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 43.89 to 50.27. Max pain at 50.00 sits inside that range, 6.2% above spot.

Spot Max pain
43.8947.08 ± 3.1950.27
Confirmation level

A close beyond 50.27 or below 43.89 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 41/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 35/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure35 × 42%
+14.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement39 × 26%
+10.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score40.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 52.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1607
43.00-8.7%
7
317
44.00-6.5%
91
3802
45.00-4.4%
134
1767
46.00-2.3%
67
970
47.00-0.2%
187
410
47.500.9%
6
356
48.002.0%
200
2944
49.004.1%
621
1252
50.006.2%
2083
947
51.008.3%
951
639
52.0010.5%
2343
16
53.0012.6%
934
50
54.0014.7%
656
93
55.0016.8%
1923
120
56.0018.9%
457
2
58.0023.2%
227
23
60.0027.4%
1427
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.50× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.61 7 Aug 7d
0.51 14 Aug 14d
0.48 21 Aug 21d
0.47 28 Aug 28d
0.44 4 Sep 35d
0.40 11 Sep 42d
0.40 18 Sep 49d
0.40 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

38
39
41
42
42
43
44
44
45
46
47
47
48
49
49
50
51
52
53
55
56
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
910 / 910
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

81/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $20.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+35
1W price-3.5%
Call premium65%
Put premium35%
Notional split C 65% / P 35% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.07 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 39/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 18171 contracts traded, $4.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$4.5M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 2803 contracts traded, $3.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$3.1M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 2938 contracts traded, $1.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1.6M
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 2788 contracts traded, $1.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1.5M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 5471 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1.1M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close47.08
1W-3.5%
RS-9.5
Fair value-41.5%
Options pressure35
Speculation42
Volatility70
Trend fit39

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.61 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.53 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.07 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:00 Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 4.9%
30 Jul 10:00 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 12:57 Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 14:20 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 4.9%
31 Jul 15:41 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 4.1%
2 Aug 06:37 Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 6.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 16
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 40 · OI 0
Strike36.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 32 · OI 1
Strike37.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 10 · OI 45
Strike38.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 5 · OI 36
Strike39.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 6
Puts · V 5 · OI 29
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 33
Puts · V 82 · OI 54

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.61
Put-call0.82
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.53
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.43
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.44
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.54

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.59
Skew-0.04
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.50
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.48
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.47
Skew0.03
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.43
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNVO260807P00045000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume3873
OI3802
IV0.59
ContractNVO260821C00052500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike52.50
Volume3143
OI5124
IV0.47
ContractNVO260807P00049000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike49.00
Volume2689
OI2944
IV0.60
ContractNVO261016P00050000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike50.00
Volume2591
OI5727
IV0.42
ContractNVO260807C00052000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike52.00
Volume2450
OI2343
IV0.65
ContractNVO270115C00055000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike55.00
Volume2423
OI20529
IV0.40
ContractNVO261218P00035000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume2243
OI7879
IV0.43
ContractNVO260807P00047000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike47.00
Volume2185
OI970
IV0.61