Ticker Options Intelligence

TMC options intelligence

TMC the metals company Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 02:24 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TMC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 2.2%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.10

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -3.0%

RS -44.6

Expected move 2.2%
Put-call volume 0.10
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.80
Max pain 3.50
Underlying 3.67
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 378

Research Brief

TMC has a bullish chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 3.59–3.75; The largest call open-interest concentration is 4.00; the largest put concentration is 3.50. The most active strike by current volume is 3.50.

Priced range3.59–3.75
Call concentration4.00
Put concentration3.50
Max pain reference3.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 3.59 to 3.75. Max pain at 3.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
3.593.67 ± 0.083.75
Confirmation level

A close beyond 3.75 or below 3.59 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 93/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure93 × 42%
+39.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 4.00; the largest put concentration is 3.50. The most active strike by current volume is 3.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-72.8%
290
0
1.50-59.1%
51
1
2.00-45.5%
3
100
2.50-31.9%
3
75
3.00-18.3%
66
676
3.50-4.6%
174
204
4.009.0%
2537
61
4.5022.6%
1019
32
5.0036.2%
2196
16
5.5049.9%
243
2
6.0063.5%
517
0
6.5077.1%
102
0
7.0090.7%
430
0
7.50104.4%
904
0
8.00118.0%
254
0
8.50131.6%
5
0
9.00145.2%
1026
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.71× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.80 31 Jul 0d
0.75 7 Aug 7d
1.13 14 Aug 14d
1.14 21 Aug 21d
1.10 28 Aug 28d
1.08 4 Sep 35d
1.05 11 Sep 42d
1.02 18 Sep 49d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

3
4
4
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
378 / 378
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

82/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $215031 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+93
1W price-3.0%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split C 91% / P 9% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 12 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1213 contracts traded, $76844 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$76844
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 249 contracts traded, $66504 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$66504
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 101 contracts traded, $18374 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$18374
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 498 contracts traded, $12736 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$12736
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 933 contracts traded, $7050 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$7050

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close3.56
1W-3.0%
RS-44.6
Fair value+11.5%
Options pressure93
Speculation40
Volatility65
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 2.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.80 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.10 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:51 Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 10:42 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 6.8%
31 Jul 10:30 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 4.8%
1 Aug 01:24 Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 2.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 290
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike1.50
Calls · V 7 · OI 51
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Strike3.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 66
Puts · V 0 · OI 75
Strike3.50
Calls · V 241 · OI 174
Puts · V 32 · OI 676
Strike4.00
Calls · V 74 · OI 2537
Puts · V 45 · OI 204
Strike4.50
Calls · V 17 · OI 1019
Puts · V 7 · OI 61

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV1.80
Put-call0.25
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.13
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV1.13
Put-call0.28
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV1.14
Put-call0.09
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV1.10
Put-call0.07

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.54
Put IV0.42
Skew-1.11
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.01
Put IV1.18
Skew0.17
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.15
Put IV1.08
Skew-0.07
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.11
Put IV1.14
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.15
Put IV1.09
Skew-0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTMC280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume619
OI13008
IV1.07
ContractTMC260821C00007000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.00
Volume507
OI18851
IV1.49
ContractTMC260731C00003500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike3.50
Volume241
OI174
IV0.41
ContractTMC260807C00004000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume234
OI650
IV1.01
ContractTMC260807C00003500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike3.50
Volume218
OI116
IV0.91
ContractTMC260821C00004000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume203
OI1303
IV1.14
ContractTMC260904C00001000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike1.00
Volume189
OI21
IV2.63
ContractTMC270115C00017000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.00
Volume175
OI6290
IV1.21