Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MARA options intelligence
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:23 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MARA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.
Expected move
5.0%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.19
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.23
Call-side skew
Trend fit
32
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-6.6%
RS -18.1
Expected move
5.0%
Put-call volume
0.23
Volume / OI
0.19
Reference IV
1.25
Max pain
11.00
Underlying
12.12
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
948
Research Brief
MARA has a volatility chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 11.51–12.73; The largest call open-interest concentration is 14.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 11.50.
Priced range11.51–12.73
Call concentration14.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference11.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 11.51 to 12.73. Max pain at 11.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
11.5112.12 ± 0.6112.73
Confirmation level
A close beyond 12.73 or below 11.51 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 66/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure66 × 42%
+27.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation45 × 22%
+9.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement32 × 26%
+8.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 14.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 11.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2472
9.00-25.7%
382
1125
9.50-21.6%
138
14311
10.00-17.5%
2057
4656
10.50-13.4%
2781
7816
11.00-9.2%
9673
4124
11.50-5.1%
11412
4628
12.00-1.0%
11545
3599
12.503.1%
7416
1156
13.007.3%
40661
644
13.5011.4%
16760
99
14.0015.5%
42704
108
14.5019.6%
17918
13
15.0023.8%
4977
11
15.5027.9%
2136
40
16.0032.0%
9378
25
17.0040.3%
1448
50
20.0065.0%
1018
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.25
31 Jul
1d
1.09
7 Aug
8d
1.02
14 Aug
15d
0.99
21 Aug
22d
0.96
28 Aug
29d
0.96
4 Sep
36d
0.92
11 Sep
43d
0.96
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 948 / 948
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $18.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+66
1W price-6.6%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split
C 78% / P 22%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.19
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
32/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 50396 contracts traded, $5.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$5.0M
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 56029 contracts traded, $2.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$2.8M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 125917 contracts traded, $1.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1.8M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5750 contracts traded, $995357 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$995357
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 10001 contracts traded, $738737 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$738737
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close11.32
1W-6.6%
RS-18.1
Fair value-27.3%
Options pressure66
Speculation45
Volatility76
Trend fit32
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:38
Volatility
Pressure 63
Move 9.0%
30 Jul 10:34
Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 16.8%
31 Jul 10:23
Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 5.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike3.00
Calls · V 29 · OI 51
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 49 · OI 39
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 47 · OI 36
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Strike6.00
Calls · V 56 · OI 51
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.00
Calls · V 78 · OI 16
Puts · V 4 · OI 207
Strike8.00
Calls · V 27 · OI 137
Puts · V 0 · OI 317
Strike8.50
Calls · V 14 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 817
Strike9.00
Calls · V 33 · OI 382
Puts · V 29 · OI 2472
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV1.25
Put-call0.31
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV1.09
Put-call0.10
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV1.02
Put-call0.25
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.99
Put-call0.25
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.96
Put-call0.29
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.21
Put IV1.21
Skew-0.01
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.02
Put IV1.09
Skew0.07
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.02
Put IV1.05
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.96
Put IV1.03
Skew0.07
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.93
Put IV1.01
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMARA260807C00012000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike12.00
Volume36521
OI13933
IV1.07
ContractMARA260807C00013000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike13.00
Volume28477
OI7092
IV1.07
ContractMARA260731C00013000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike13.00
Volume26089
OI40661
IV1.29
ContractMARA260731C00012500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike12.50
Volume24589
OI7416
IV1.21
ContractMARA260731C00014000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike14.00
Volume22442
OI42704
IV1.63
ContractMARA260731C00012000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike12.00
Volume19508
OI11545
IV1.17
ContractMARA260731P00011500
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike11.50
Volume16672
OI4124
IV1.21
ContractMARA260731C00011500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike11.50
Volume12750
OI11412
IV1.11
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.