Ticker Options Intelligence

ABTC options intelligence

American Bitcoin Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:24 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ABTC currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 6.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.49

Call-side skew

Trend fit 58

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -3.5%

Sharemaestro weekly context

Expected move 6.2%
Put-call volume 0.49
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 3.36
Max pain 5.50
Underlying 5.72
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 171

Research Brief

ABTC has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.36–6.08; The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range5.36–6.08
Call concentration6.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference5.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 5.36 to 6.08. Max pain at 5.50 sits inside that range, 3.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
5.365.72 ± 0.366.08
Confirmation level

A close beyond 6.08 or below 5.36 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 42/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure42 × 42%
+17.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement58 × 26%
+15.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility81 × 10%
+8.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score49.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
0.50-91.3%
6
39
1.00-82.5%
13
1
1.50-73.8%
9
0
2.00-65.0%
1
1
2.50-56.3%
8
0
3.00-47.6%
4
0
3.50-38.8%
1
105
5.00-12.6%
1
40
5.50-3.8%
8
26
6.004.9%
375
8
6.5013.6%
291
0
7.0022.4%
16
0
7.5031.1%
1
3
8.0039.9%
1
4
9.0057.3%
0
0
9.5066.1%
12
1
10.5083.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.36× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

3.36 31 Jul 0d
1.83 7 Aug 7d
1.90 14 Aug 14d
1.41 21 Aug 21d
1.33 28 Aug 28d
1.55 4 Sep 35d
2.34 18 Sep 49d
1.61 18 Dec 140d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

5
6
6
7
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A98/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility97%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
171 / 171
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $256818 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+42
1W price-3.5%
Call premium27%
Put premium73%
Notional split C 27% / P 73% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 58/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 273 contracts traded, $150190 estimated gross traded notional, and 58% of visible notional.
$150190
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1309 contracts traded, $36992 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$36992
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 227 contracts traded, $15870 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$15870
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 310 contracts traded, $8723 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$8723
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 299 contracts traded, $7319 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$7319

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close5.52
1W-3.5%
RS-
Fair value-84.7%
Options pressure42
Speculation41
Volatility81
Trend fit58

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 3.36 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.49 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:00 Volatility
Pressure 82
Move 14.0%
30 Jul 10:49 Volatility
Pressure 35
Move 11.2%
31 Jul 06:44 Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 9.3%
31 Jul 13:04 Volatility
Pressure 77
Move 9.2%
31 Jul 14:24 Volatility
Pressure 42
Move 6.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike1.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 13
Puts · V 20 · OI 39
Strike1.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 9
Puts · V 2 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 22 · OI 0
Strike2.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike3.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 62 · OI 105

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts27
Avg IV3.36
Put-call4.52
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV1.83
Put-call1.61
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV1.90
Put-call0.90
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV1.41
Put-call0.47
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV1.33
Put-call0.73

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV3.77
Put IV0.72
Skew-3.05
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.88
Put IV1.56
Skew-0.32
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.88
Put IV1.73
Skew-0.16
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.64
Put IV1.32
Skew-0.33
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.69
Put IV1.15
Skew-0.54

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractABTC261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI23
IV1.43
ContractABTC270319C00002500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI13
IV1.59
ContractABTC260731C00009500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike9.50
Volume-
OI12
IV12.03
ContractABTC260918C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI11
IV2.00
ContractABTC260807P00006500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume-
OI10
IV1.82
ContractABTC260814P00005000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI8
IV1.73
ContractABTC261218P00002000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI8
IV4.38
ContractABTC260807P00001500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike1.50
Volume-
OI7
IV5.47