Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MCHP options intelligence
Microchip Technology Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 12:23 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MCHP currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
10.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.10
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.8%
RS -5.2
Expected move
10.4%
Put-call volume
0.10
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.94
Max pain
78.00
Underlying
74.29
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1198
Research Brief
MCHP has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 66.54–82.04; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 87.00. The most active strike by current volume is 81.00.
Priced range66.54–82.04
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration87.00
Max pain reference78.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 66.54 to 82.04. Max pain at 78.00 sits inside that range, 5.0% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
66.5474.29 ± 7.7582.04
Confirmation level
A close beyond 82.04 or below 66.54 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 86/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure86 × 42%
+36.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 87.00. The most active strike by current volume is 81.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6
65.00-12.5%
1
159
70.00-5.8%
0
103
71.00-4.4%
0
150
77.003.6%
29
10
78.005.0%
3367
6
79.006.3%
118
49
80.007.7%
3384
142
81.009.0%
34
212
82.0010.4%
122
99
83.0011.7%
97
70
84.0013.1%
106
117
85.0014.4%
241
140
86.0015.8%
195
489
87.0017.1%
192
63
88.0018.5%
76
1
100.0034.6%
1142
0
125.0068.3%
124
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.94
7 Aug
7d
0.80
14 Aug
14d
0.77
21 Aug
21d
0.73
28 Aug
28d
0.71
4 Sep
35d
0.69
11 Sep
42d
0.68
18 Sep
49d
0.69
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
60
61
63
64
66
67
69
70
72
73
74
76
77
79
80
82
83
85
86
88
89
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1198 / 1198
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $30.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+86
1W price-5.8%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 12723 contracts traded, $22.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 73% of visible notional.
$22.0M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 12009 contracts traded, $4.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$4.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1632 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 720 contracts traded, $904495 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$904495
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 632 contracts traded, $492960 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$492960
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close74.29
1W-5.8%
RS-5.2
Fair value+4.1%
Options pressure86
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:07
Volatility
Pressure 24
Move 6.7%
30 Jul 10:05
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 10.0%
31 Jul 11:35
Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 5.5%
31 Jul 14:17
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 4.4%
31 Jul 15:40
Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 16:48
Bullish
Pressure 67
Move 5.4%
31 Jul 18:05
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 5.0%
1 Aug 11:23
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 10.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 27
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 1
Strike56.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike57.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike58.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike59.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 61
Strike61.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts116
Avg IV0.94
Put-call0.72
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.80
Put-call2.45
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.77
Put-call1.38
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts102
Avg IV0.73
Put-call0.50
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.71
Put-call4.50
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.96
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.82
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.82
Skew0.09
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.78
Skew0.08
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.78
Skew0.11
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMCHP261218C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume11585
OI50
IV0.68
ContractMCHP260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume11270
OI20297
IV0.65
ContractMCHP260918C00072500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike72.50
Volume974
OI266
IV0.66
ContractMCHP260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume647
OI108471
IV0.66
ContractMCHP260918P00075000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume566
OI5453
IV0.70
ContractMCHP260821C00095000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume542
OI1015
IV0.73
ContractMCHP260821P00065000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume542
OI971
IV0.82
ContractMCHP261218C00062500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike62.50
Volume419
OI12
IV0.68
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.