Polymarket · Energy

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?

Energy expectations are rising at 77.5% on a moderate-quality market. Energy expectation is rising at 77.5%. 24h move +7.0 pts. 7d move +7.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 77.5%
Signal Probability Surge
Score 47
Freshness now
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 9.2K Liquidity 3.9K Spread 0.2 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality44.1
Momentum40.6
Urgency66.0
7d Move7.0 pts

Energy expectation is rising at 77.5%. 24h move +7.0 pts. 7d move +7.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Same theme
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 24? 99.9% · Probability Surge · score 72 Iran full airspace closure by July 24? 11.5% · Probability Fade · score 62 Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? 37.5% · Probability Surge · score 55 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? 19.7% · Probability Surge · score 50 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? 34.5% · Probability Surge · score 45 Will Chevron (CVX) Q2 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.0M? 61.0% · Probability Surge · score 40