Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 80.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 80.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 27/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 80.5%
Signal Watch
Score 37
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 99 Liquidity 184 Spread 0.3 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality26.5
Momentum17.9
Urgency95.0
7d Move-0.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 80.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 27/100.

Same theme
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? 45.0% · Watch · score 51 Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legis… 32.0% · Probability Fade · score 46 Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat? 72.0% · Probability Surge · score 42 Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? 44.5% · Watch · score 39 Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? 4.3% · Watch · score 37 Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? 34.5% · Watch · score 37