Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?

Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 70.0% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 70.0%. 24h move +5.0 pts. 7d move +5.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 70.0%
Signal Probability Surge
Score 37
Freshness 49s
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 984 Liquidity 43 Spread 0.2 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality29.0
Momentum53.0
Urgency25.0
7d Move5.0 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 70.0%. 24h move +5.0 pts. 7d move +5.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Same theme
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? 24.5% · Probability Fade · score 58 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? 45.0% · Watch · score 51 Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat? 46.5% · Probability Surge · score 50 Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? 49.5% · Probability Fade · score 49 Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? 82.0% · Probability Surge · score 46 Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legis… 32.0% · Probability Fade · score 46