Polymarket · Energy

Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Energy expectations are falling at 17.5% on a moderate-quality market. Energy expectation is falling at 17.5%. 24h move -6.0 pts. 7d move -6.0 pts. Data quality 48/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 17.5%
Signal Probability Fade
Score 38
Freshness 57s
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 8.8K Liquidity 16.7K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality47.5
Momentum34.8
Urgency25.0
7d Move-6.0 pts

Energy expectation is falling at 17.5%. 24h move -6.0 pts. 7d move -6.0 pts. Data quality 48/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Same theme
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? 66.5% · Probability Surge · score 74 Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? 97.5% · Probability Surge · score 64 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? 1.0% · Probability Fade · score 61 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? 70.5% · Probability Surge · score 61 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? 79.0% · Probability Surge · score 61 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? 61.5% · Probability Surge · score 58